A wave of small-business sales worth up to $5 trillion is approaching the U.S. economy, as millions of baby boomer owners prepare to retire. A new McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility report describes the shift as the “Great Ownership Transfer,” estimating that about 6 million small businesses will change hands by 2035. More than one million of those firms are viable candidates for sale. Together, they represent up to $5 trillion in enterprise value.

The question is who will own them.

The Gap Between Ownership and Population

The ownership gap is stark. White entrepreneurs make up roughly 73% of small business owners. Black entrepreneurs account for just 3%, despite representing 13% of the U.S. population. Latino ownership stands at about 12%, compared with a roughly 20% share of the population. Women, meanwhile, own about 23% of businesses.

Under current participation patterns, McKinsey estimates that women and Black and Latino individuals combined would capture only about 28% of the enterprise value being transferred. For Black entrepreneurs specifically, that translates to roughly $87 billion of the total value available.

That imbalance doesn’t just highlight inequality; it also points to a massive untapped opportunity.

What Closing the Gap Could Unlock

If Black entrepreneurs achieve parity with the broader population, their estimated wealth capture rises more than fourfold to approximately $369 billion. Closing participation gaps for women could unlock roughly $700 billion in additional wealth. Across all underrepresented groups, the McKinsey report estimates that a more equitable transition to ownership could unlock up to $3 trillion in new household wealth.

Shelley Stewart, a senior partner at McKinsey and co-author of the report, put it plainly.

“This is the largest ownership transition in modern U.S. history,” he said. “This is a huge opportunity, but there is also a challenge. The market to connect buyers, sellers and capital is not built at scale.”

The Risk of Inaction

But the outlook is not purely optimistic. Today, 92% of small businesses close rather than sell. Only about 5% are sold, and just 3% successfully transfer to new ownership. If that pattern holds, the Great Ownership Transfer could produce widespread economic damage rather than renewal.

Small businesses employ nearly half of the U.S. workforce. They account for 99.9% of all U.S. companies. Failed transitions could eliminate up to 12 million jobs and erase approximately $250 billion in annual local spending power.

Rural areas face the highest exposure. In some sparsely populated states, small businesses account for more than half of all employment.

AI and the Path Forward

Beyond financing and market infrastructure, the report points to a newer potential equalizer: artificial intelligence. Brandon William Jones, founder of Gravy Wealth and a collaborator with the National Black MBA Association, said AI gives prospective buyers tools to understand industries quickly and run operations more efficiently.

“If someone is AI forward, not only can they potentially acquire this business, they can run the AI playbook to drive a lot more efficiency and value,” Jones said.

McKinsey’s Stewart agreed that AI increases the upside for business acquisitions, particularly in labor-intensive sectors such as retail, restaurants, and healthcare. For entrepreneurs without deep industry experience, AI lowers the barrier to understanding and managing an acquired business.

The report calls for coordinated action from banks, corporate buyers, public agencies, and educational institutions. The goal is to build the infrastructure needed to support ownership transfers at scale.

Within a decade, McKinsey says, buying a business should become as common, visible, and supported as starting one.