The United States 2024 Presidential election has proven to be a landmark moment for the crypto industry as expected as Donald Trump’s victory immediately propelled the price of Bitcoin (BTC) to record highs.
Just minutes after the initial numbers confirmed Trump’s sweeping victory over Kamala Harris, the price moved above $75,000 for the first time in its history.
The rally was fueled by the perception that Trump will help the sector expand and thrive as the US government may progressively embrace digital assets. The new Trump White House is expected to push lawmakers to draft a comprehensive regulatory framework for the industry as well.
During his campaign, Trump promised to make the United States the “bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world” and even floated the idea of appointing tech billionaire Elon Musk to lead a “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) that would audit federal spending.
“If Trump wins, I believe we’ll see new all-time highs,” said Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management. “If Harris wins, I expect a decent short-term sell-off, with prices taking a month or two to recover. But eventually, either way, I think we go higher.”
The Senate’s Banking Committee Chair Was Defeated by Pro-Crypto Republican
The crypto industry has enthusiastically backed Trump’s candidacy and poured tens of millions of dollars into his campaign and affiliated political action committees (PACs). This financial support appears to have paid off as Trump’s victory was partially attributed to the sector’s involvement.
One prominent example is the candidacy of Bernie Moreno, the Republican Senate candidate in Ohio, who defeated his Democratic rival, Sherrod Brown, after receiving a flood of money from crypto interests. The latter is the head of the almighty Banking Committee that oversees the financial sector.
Being anti-crypto is simply bad politics pic.twitter.com/Y6mPMSE3C0
— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) November 6, 2024
Moreno, a vocal proponent of cryptocurrencies, managed to secure substantial donations from the industry while Brown became a target amid his anti-crypto stance.
The crypto-based betting platform Polymarket saw a significant increase in Trump’s winning odds in its flagship US 2024 election wager. This further fueled the belief that the former president’s return to the White House was imminent.
Crypto Stocks Jump Following Trump’s Win, US Dollar Also Ticks Higher
The enthusiasm for Trump’s win extended beyond the crypto sphere, with traditional financial markets also reacting positively to the news. US stock futures tracking the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indexes all posted significant gains in pre-market trading.
The US dollar also experienced a 1.7% increase and moved to a four-month high as Trump is expected to adopt an expansionary fiscal approach that could lead to higher inflation and interest rate increases. All of this favors a higher price for the greenback.
“The likelihood of a Republican sweep is quite large and that means more expansionary fiscal policy,” commented Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, an FX analyst for the Danske Bank
The value of the shares of publicly traded companies with heavy exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) also rose in extended hours. For example, Coinbase (COIN) stock is surging by 12% while MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares are jumping by 9% ahead of today’s opening bell.
“A Trump victory could be the catalyst that pushes the world’s first and largest cryptocurrency into uncharted territory,” said Nigel Green of deVere before yesterday’s results came out.
He added: “His return to office would likely have a renewed emphasis on deregulation, tax incentives and economic policies favourable to alternative investments, such as Bitcoin.”
SEC’s Gensler Will Likely Be Ousted
Trump’s return to the White House could have a critical impact on the sector’s growth moving forward as regulatory and legislative changes will likely be pursued in the first few months after he takes office.
Moreover, during his previous tenure, Trump advocated for tax cuts and a looser monetary policy. All of these measures led to increased liquidity – a favorable factor for the valuation of risky assets like cryptocurrencies.
Investors seem to be expecting that a similar scenario may unfold during the four years of his administration.
🇺🇸 TRUMP: "I will fire Gary Gensler and appoint a new SEC chairman … who believes America should build the future, not block the future." pic.twitter.com/5KHrdgHe2Q
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) November 5, 2024
In addition, industry observers and political analysts believe that Gary Gensler’s days as the head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are numbered. Gensler is considered an oppositional figure to the sector’s development.
Under his watch, the agency has taken a controversial approach of regulating by enforcement – a practice that involves pursuing legal initiatives against certain practices without clear legislative support.
BTC May Still Experience Significant Volatility Down the Road
Along with Trump’s presidential victory, Republicans appear to be poised to win the Senate’s majority. This critical win may facilitate the President’s path to change relevant legislation that favors his agenda.
With many new pro-crypto legislators now taking office at Capitol Hill, it seems highly likely that the first federal law that regulates the digital asset industry could be passed in 2025.
Meanwhile, analysts have cautioned that the road may be choppy and volatile for the crypto industry despite Trump’s victory as multiple factors could influence the value of digital assets down the road.
Also read: Does Coinbase’s Bad Earnings Report Spell Doom For the Crypto Market?
“The election is having a massive influence on crypto,” Bitwise’s Rasmussen stressed. “Expect bitcoin – and crypto more broadly – to be choppy in the days ahead … until we have definitive election results.”
As the nation grapples with the aftermath of a highly contested election, the crypto industry clearly believes that their money was well spent as Trump will likely prioritize the sector’s interests on the legislative front.
The coming months and years will be critical for the sector as the new administration may play a pivotal role in shaping the future of digital assets in the United States and globally.