Two days ago, a new chapter opened in the race toward the upcoming United States presidential election. Joe Biden, the current president and Democratic nominee to compete against Donald Trump announced that he will no longer run for the country’s top political seat. Speculators have found a multitude of ways of betting on his replacement, Vice President Kamala Harris, through prediction sites, meme coins, and more.
Biden cited that it was “in the best interest” of the party and the country that he would give somebody else a chance to run for president. This is the first time in American history that a sitting POTUS stands down after being officially elected as his party’s candidate.
Crypto Bets Give Harris a 92% Chance of Becoming the Next Democratic Nominee
The crypto market reacted rapidly to Biden’s comments and wagers in Polymarket concerning the political landscape saw significant changes as Kamala Harris emerged as the most likely candidate for the Democrats for the November election.
Naming who will be the next Democratic nominee has now become the second largest political wager in the prediction market with a total of nearly $252 million in bets. According to bettors, there is a 92% chance that Kamala Harris will be nominated by the Democrats.
Her odds started to increase progressively since the debate between Biden and Trump on June 27 and experienced significant volatility along the way. However, bettors started to decisively favor Kamala’s nomination since July 17 when the assassination attempt on Trump took place.
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Meanwhile, shortly after making his statement, President Biden took to his social media account to publicly endorse his Vice President – Kamala Harris – to become the party’s nominee to come up against Trump.
His endorsement sealed the deal for Harris as the top nominee within the party.
The Democratic party quickly lined up behind Biden and the first reports that have circulated in the media show that over 3,000 delegates from the Democratic National Committee are backing the nomination of Kamala Harris as the party’s contestant for the presidency. This is nearly a thousand more votes than the minimum threshold needed to be nominated.
The nomination would occur in the next few weeks through a virtual meeting that the party will hold just days before the Democratic National Convention (DNC) takes place.
This was not an unexpected turn of events for anyone considering how bad the debate between Biden and Trump went and the many instances in which the current president showed that his mental acuteness was not at its best.
A few other bets concerning Biden have gained traction in Polymarket including one that asks if the current president will finish his term. Bettors have given Biden a 69% chance of finishing his 4-year tenure and have bet a combined $9.1 million on this event.
Also read: Political Betting Sites in the US for 2024
Meanwhile, the odds of Kamala Harris winning the 2024 Presidential Election have increased to 35%, resulting in a 1,200 basis points climb in just 6 days.
It is worth noting that betting odds have been impressivly accurate in predicting who the next President of the United States will be in the past. However, the campaign is still far from over.
Moreover, in a clear statement of support, Kamala Harris managed to pull in over $80 million in donations for her campaign in just 24 hours. This is the highest amount raised by any candidate in the history of the country. In addition, nearly 30,000 people have also volunteered to help her succeed.
But simple prediction markets may not be the best way to bet on her success.
KAMA Meme Coin Surges 700% Since the Presidential Debate
The crypto markets have also reacted to the latest developments concerning the political landscape. The 2024 election has become saturated with memes and meme coins, often making fun of each candidate. The satirical meme coin Joe Boden (BODEN) performed well when it seemed like he had a decent change of winning but it faced a significant decline in the past 7 days.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, BODEN has lost 65.9% of its value during this period while it accumulates an 87% loss in the past 30 days. Daily trading volumes have also retreated by 56% in the past 24 hours as tokens associated with Trump and Harris have been attracting the most attention and capital.
In a similar fashion, a meme coin that parodies former president Trump named Doland Tremp (TREMP) has also been losing ground in the past 7 days, booking a 9% loss during that period while accumulating a 14.4% retreat in the past 30 days.
In contrast, a new Solana-based token named KAMA has experienced sizable gains in the past few days. Since 27 June, the day of the debate, the meme coin has accumulated gains of over 700%.
Meanwhile, since Biden publicly announced that he would drop out of the race, the KAMA token has almost doubled its value. Its market cap currently stands at $34.6 million according to data from DEX Screener. If Harris’ campaign goes well and she continues to improve her position in the polls, KAMA may skyrocket again. If she manages to win the election, there’s no telling how high KAMA could go.
The next event that could have a significant influence on the trajectory of the campaign and betting odds would be a debate between Harris and Trump. In this particular topic, bettors agree that such an encounter will happen before election day. Trump has already agreed to participate in another televised discussion. “I would be willing to do more than one debate, absolutely,” he said during a call with reporters held yesterday.
What Would a Harris Presidency Imply to the Crypto Industry?
Even though many voices were calling for Biden’s resignation as the Democratic candidate for the upcoming election, many thought that the odds of that were quite low. Indeed, it was an unprecedented move in the country’s political history but it seems to have improved the chances of a Democrat winning in November.
However, now that Harris could soon become the official nominee for the party, her views on various topics will be scrutinized and her proposals and comments on subjects like immigration, foreign policy, civil rights, and digital assets will likely influence the outcome of the election dramatically.
When it comes to the crypto industry, Kamala Harris has not made any concise statements that show her true opinions on the matter. Democrats have been generally been seen as the most hostile party concerning the development of digital assets and the overall growth of the industry as the Biden administration has pushed for regulations that are considered detrimental to the sector’s advancement.
“She is certainly not unfamiliar with the importance of technology, it’s critical in her state,” Sheila Warren, the Chief Executive Officer of the Crypto Council for Innovation, told CoinDesk this morning.
Meanwhile, the Digital Chamber, an organization that promotes the acceptance of digital assets and blockchain technology in the United States, sent a letter to Harris’s campaign to prompt her to engage in discussions with industry leaders that can help her “craft policies that encourage growth while ensuring consumer protection and financial stability”.
Despite these comments, experts agree that Trump has won over the support of the crypto industry already as he has embraced digital assets throughout his campaign. One example is that Trump sold non-fungible tokens (NFTs) to finance his campaign and was also the first candidate in history to accept donations in Bitcoin (BTC).
The next few weeks will be crucial for Harris as she will be touring the country to speak to Americans and discuss topics of interest that can either make or break her candidacy.