Week One: All-Bust Fantasy Lineup

It’s that time of the year again. That time when you wake up on Monday morning after Week 1, review the carnage of your fantasy team, and second-guess a few of the draft decisions you made with utmost confidence just a couple weeks ago. Well, that’s what you’ll be doing if you selected any of the players in this column, anyway.

Of course, it’s too soon to cut bait with any of the guys you drafted in the first few rounds. But it’s never too early to start evaluating the guys who might be in for a Zac Stacy-esque downfall in 2015.

The selection process for each week’s All-Bust team is pretty simple: I calculate the difference between the projected point totals and the actual outputs of each player. The guys with the worst sums wind up here, with their disappointing performances illustrated by PointAfter visualizations.

Note: All projected point totals were pulled Sunday morning from Yahoo’s standard scoring system. All position ranks are accurate through Sunday’s games.

QB: Peyton Manning

Projected points (position rank): 19.9 (4th)

Actual points (position rank): 5.9 (21st)

Technically, the ever enigmatic Joe Flacco was the worst underperformer of Week 1, whiffing on his Yahoo! projection of 17.2 points by 14.5 points. However, it’s doubtful that Flacco was starting for anyone in your league, while Peyton Manning’s owners might have been expecting him to carry them to victory.

Quite the opposite scenario unfolded. Manning looked every bit like the 39-year-old who stumbled through the final month of 2014, and nothing like the QB who he’d been, well, basically for the last decade-plus.

Manning averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt on Sunday, completing 24-of-40 attempts for 175 yards, no touchdowns and a pick. After leading the NFL with 30 completions of 30-plus yards in 2014, his deep ball touch was nowhere to be found on Sunday. The longest completion he had was an 18-yarder to Emmanuel Sanders, whom he overthrew on seam routes multiple times.

Manning’s QB rating for the game was 59.9, just the third time he’d posted a mark that low since signing with Denver. It also stands in stark contrast to his other season openers as a Bronco, when he compiled a 12-0 TD/INT ratio.

All in all, if you drafted Manning in hopes that he’d rediscover his prior Denver form (as well as any sort of tangible feeling in his fingers), this was not the season debut you were looking for.

RB1: C.J. Anderson

Projected points (position rank): 13.0 (7th)

Actual points (position rank): 4.8 (37th)

It’s only Week One, so I don’t want to misidentify an anomaly as a trend. But after rushing 12 times for 29 yards in a meek performance against Baltimore, it sure looks like C.J. Anderson’s status as the unquestioned No. 1 back is in question — especially after backup Ronnie Hillman gained 41 yards on his 12 carries.

Anderson might have gotten the lion’s share of carries in the second half of last season, but there’s a new coaching staff in Denver now that’s having to deal with a patchwork offensive line. If the Broncos struggle again on offense like they did against the Ravens, they might elect to shake up part of the unit. And it’s not as if Manning, Demaryius Thomas or Sanders are going to lose their starting jobs.

RB2: Frank Gore

Projected points (position rank): 10.4 (18th)

Actual points (position rank): 3.1 (48th)

Frank Gore has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards while averaging at least 4.0 yards per carry in his last eight full seasons. He’s on pace to fall short of both of those benchmarks after a disappointing debut against Buffalo, in which he totaled just 31 yards on eight carries.

Gore did miss one series due to calf cramps, so that might have slightly affected his numbers. But you wouldn’t blame Gore if he was a little upset at the lack of balance in Indianapolis’ game plan.

Even when the Colts were within striking distance in the first half, Gore only got six carries (for 26 yards), as opposed to a whopping 26 passes from Luck. He didn’t get another rushing attempt following the team’s first drive of the second half, rounding out an overall disappointing day for owners of almost any Colts player.

WR1: Sammy Watkins

Projected points (position rank): 8.1 (30th)

Actual points (position rank): 0.0 (N/A)

As a whole, the Bills wildly exceeded expectations in a 27-14 win over Andrew Luck and Indianapolis on Sunday. That wasn’t the case for their No. 1 wideout, Sammy Watkins, who wasn’t even thrown to until the fourth quarter. Colts cornerback Vontae Davis shut Watkins down, and didn’t allow a single catch on three targets to him.

Those who owned Watkins last year can attest to his boom or bust production, as he failed to record four points in eight of Buffalo’s games, combining for just 210 receiving yards in those contests.

Still, it’s possible the hamstring injury that affected Watkins in training camp was slowing him down a bit. He should have an easier go next week against New England, who no longer have Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner to rely on outside.

WR2: Odell Beckham Jr.

Projected points (position rank): 12.8 (3rd)

Actual points (position rank): 4.4 (47th)

It pains me to put OBJ in this slot, given that the All-World superhuman very well might have sustained a concussion on a brutal hit from Cowboys safety J.J. Wilcox Sunday night. But the doctors cleared him, so — wait, what? You say they probably didn’t? And Beckham wound up with 8.4 less fantasy points than originally projected, the worst mark among WRs on Sunday? AND the Giants ended up losing in devastating fashion?

You can’t convince me these things aren’t directly related, because Beckham had never before resembled a dazed and confused mortal more so than he did yesterday. It’d be a lot cooler if he hadn’t.

TE: Greg Olsen

Projected points (position rank): 7.0 (7th)

Actual points (position rank): 1.1 (34th)

In virtually every fantasy draft I participated in this year, whoever picked Greg Olsen received the equivalent of a polite golf clap from the rest of the room. Olsen was a bit underrated last year as the No. 3 TE in standard formats, and was expected to battle with Travis Kelce for that distinction in 2015.

But while Kelce lit up Houston for 106 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, Olsen was blanketed by the Jaguars, of all teams. Jacksonville limited the Pro Bowler to a single reception and 11 yards on three targets, a far cry from the production everyone expected given his status as the team’s leading returner amid an otherwise horrid receiving corps.

Olsen can at least take solace in the fact that he gets a turn against the Texans next week following Kelce’s huge day against them.

Flex: Calvin Johnson

Projected points (position rank): 11.5 (7th)

Actual points (position rank): 3.9 (49th)

Maybe it was too optimistic to expect Calvin Johnson to return to his old form this week after he didn’t take a single preseason snap. Matched up against a formidable San Diego secondary, the 29-year-old only recorded two catches on four targets for 39 yards.

It also didn’t help that San Diego completely dominated time of possession. Matthew Stafford’s 30 attempts on Sunday would’ve tied for his second-lowest total in 2014, limiting Johnson’s touches.

Many fantasy “experts” are down on Megatron after an ankle injury caused him to missed three games and essentially act as a decoy in a couple others. This, despite the fact he averaged more than 13 points per week upon returning. I don’t expect Johnson to appear in this column again anytime soon this season, if at all.

D/ST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected points (position rank): 8.3 (7th)

Actual points (position rank): 0.0 (T-27th)

Okay, so maybe we all underestimated Marcus Mariota. And looking at the box score, giving up 309 yards isn’t all that bad. It also didn’t help matters that the Bucs committed 12 penalties for 97 yards, nor that Tampa Bay’s offense had a net loss of 22 yards in the third quarter.

But consider that Tennessee had 317 yards after three quarters before calling off the dogs. Even without Jameis Winston’s horrible pick-six, this game wasn’t going to go any other way.

In the end, it’s inexcusable for a team coached by Lovie Smith, a supposed defensive guru, to give up 42 freaking points to the Titans, who never topped 28 points last season.

Kicker: Adam Vinatieri

Projected points (position rank): 8.1 (20th)

Actual points (position rank): 0.0 (28th)

Adam Vinatieri missed his only field goal attempt of the day, a 52-yarder, to match his total for failed attempts last season. And since the Colts were behind by three possessions by the time they scored their first touchdown, they elected to go for two points whenever they scored. So, Vinatieri didn’t have a chance to redeem himself, and was thus the only kicker to put up a goose egg on Sunday.

If kickers were covered like quarterbacks, we’d be treated to dozens of hot takes wondering if this was the beginning of the end for the 43-year-old. Instead, Vinatieri will likely hit a couple chip shots next week, and his owners will go back to worrying about the other, more important issues affecting their roster.

Final Tally

Here’s the final recap of the most disappointing fantasy lineup you could have posted from Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season:

Peyton Manning: 5.9
C.J. Anderson: 4.8
Frank Gore: 3.1
Sammy Watkins: 0.0
Odell Beckham Jr.: 4.4
Greg Olsen: 1.1
Calvin Johnson: 3.9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.0
Adam Vinatieri: 0.0

Total: 23.2 points

How many of these players did you have in your lineup this week?