Voting results for 2016 Hall of Fame inductions won’t be revealed until January, but MLB released the list of 32 candidates on Monday. We can now officially pore over the dozen or so guys who should have unequivocally been left off this list and say “Oh yeah, I remember that guy! He did that one thing!” We can also marvel over the accomplishments of the legends who truly deserve a bust in Cooperstown.
The main statistic we’ll use to judge players is JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score system), which was created by Sports Illustrated writer Jay Jaffe to measure a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness. A player’s JAWS is the sum of his career WAR and his 7-year peak WAR — which does not have to occur in consecutive seasons — divided by two. The metric isn’t perfect, as it doesn’t account for postseason play, career milestones or awards. But it’s a good starting point for discussion.
A quick rundown of the Hall of Fame voting process: every year, qualified writers can vote for up to 10 players, who must be named on 75 percent of ballots to gain induction. If a player receives affirmative votes from 5 percent of the electorate, he carries over to the following year’s ballot. That process continues until a player is inducted or reaches his 10-year limit on the ballot. Up until recently, the limit was 15 years. Players who were stuck in limbo due to that statute change were grandfathered in, a protection that affects two players on this year’s ballot.
Read on to see which players have the best chance at having their busts unveiled in Cooperstown next July — along with the 10 players we’d vote for if we had a say in the matter.
#32. Brad Ausmus
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF C): 15.7 (43.1)
Universally praised during his playing days as a brilliant mind and superb defender behind the plate, Ausmus just finished his second year as manager of the Detroit Tigers. It’s rumored his tenure there might end this offseason, but the Dartmouth graduate has already lasted longer in Detroit than he will on the Hall of Fame ballot due to his lackluster offensive stats.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#31. David Eckstein
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF SS): 19.9 (54.7)
David Eckstein was beloved by traditional baseball fans for his scrappy play. The late bloomer was actually quite good in his first two major-league seasons, accumulating 9.4 WAR while helping the Angels win the World Series in 2002 as a 27-year-old.
He fell off quite a bit after that, though, and never topped 3.0 WAR again. His place on the HOF ballot is more of a novelty than anything.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#30. Mike Sweeney
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF 1B): 23.2 (54.2)
Sweeney was often the lone bright spot on the Kansas City Royals as the club trudged through a long period of ineptitude in the late 1990s and early 2000s. But he never finished in the top 10 of MVP voting, and he doesn’t merit more than a glance on the HOF ballot.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#29. Mark Grudzielanek
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF 2B): 23.4 (56.9)
Grudzielanek is appreciated by PointAfter since his surname nearly drove Harry Caray crazy. But the only favorable statistic I can find about him is that he led the league with 54 doubles in 1997.
The next best thing is that his second-closest statistical comparison is Placido Polanco, according to Baseball Reference.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#28. Trevor Hoffman
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF RP): 24.0 (34.4)
How much do HOF voters value the save? We’ll find out once the votes are tallied, because Hoffman’s case rests almost entirely on the fact that he has the second most saves (601) in MLB history. Other than that, the longtime Padres closer doesn’t have a convincing statistical case, and only made one World Series appearance — a blown save against the Yankees in Game 3 of the 1998 Fall Classic.
His closest career comparable on Baseball Reference is Lee Smith, who’s been languishing on the ballot for 13 years. Hoffman has a better chance to get elected than Smith does, and could very well see his bust enshrined in the near future. But on a stacked 2016 ballot, we don’t see it happening.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#27. Billy Wagner
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF RP): 24.0 (34.4)
One of the most feared closers of his era, Wagner blew fastballs past overmatched hitters for 16 seasons and made seven All-Star teams. Ultimately, however, his 422 saves aren’t quite enough to overcome a relatively weak JAWS and poor postseason numbers (10.03 ERA and three saves in 14 games).
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#26. Mike Lowell
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF 3B): 24.1 (55)
Lowell won two World Series rings, with the Marlins in 2003 and with Boston in 2007. He also won World Series MVP with the Red Sox, batting .400 with a homer in Boston’s sweep over Colorado.
But the four-time All-Star has just one 30-homer season to his name and was never a plus defender, so Lowell’s inclusion on the ballot is rather dubious.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#25. Garret Anderson
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF LF): 24.2 (53.3)
Anderson enjoyed a nice peak on the Angels near the turn of the millennium, helping Anaheim clinch a championship in 2002 with a league-leading 56 doubles and a top-five MVP finish. The three-time All-Star is no Hall of Famer, though.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#24. Lee Smith
Year on ballot: 14th
2015 vote percentage: 30.2 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF RP): 25.4 (34.4)
Finally, our first returning candidate! Smith has a loyal contingent that’s kept him on the ballot for 14 years, the second-longest run of any player still on the ballot.
Smith finished in the top five of NL Cy Young three times, including a second-place ranking in 1991 after he recorded a then-National League record 47 saves. But there’s almost no chance the seven-time All-Star and four-time saves leader gets the call to Cooperstown given how far he’s fallen since receiving 50.6 percent of BBWWA votes in 2012.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#23. Randy Winn
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF CF): 26.1 (57.2)
Frankly, I’m shocked Winn ranks this highly in JAWS, and that he’s on the ballot at all.
During his 13 seasons, the Los Angeles native never led the league in any hitting category. Winn was only an All-Star once, in 2002 with Tampa Bay. He was even unlucky enough to play for the Giants for five years, then depart to play his final season with the Yankees and Cardinals in 2010 — right when San Francisco won the first Fall Classic of its current dynasty.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#22. Luis Castillo
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF 2B): 26.4 (56.9)
A two-time World Series champ who won three Gold Gloves and earned three All-Star Game nods with the Florida Marlins, Castillo carved himself a nice career with his speed and glove.
But his OPS+ was only above 100 three times, which means he was an above-average second baseman at the plate during three seasons. That’s not Cooperstown material.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#21. Mike Hampton
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF SP): 27.3 (62.1)
Hampton is probably remembered more for his prowess as a hitter than his pitching ability. The southpaw pitcher wreaked havoc from the right side of the plate, turning in a very solid .246/.294/.356 career slash line and crushing 15 homers between 2001-05.
Hampton won five Silver Sluggers for his efforts at the plate, but only had one excellent season on the mound — he finished second in the Cy Young race in 1999. Hampton didn’t receive a single vote in any other year.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#20. Troy Glaus
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF 3B): 35.3 (55)
Glaus might have had a real shot at the Hall of Fame had a glass body not forced him to retire at age 33. He was the AL’s home run leader (47) in 2000 when he was just a 23-year-old with Anaheim, and continued acting as steady source of power for a decade before his numerous ailments caught up to him.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#19. Jason Kendall
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF C): 35.9 (43.1)
Kendall was as steady as steady can be. One of the game’s best arms behind the plate, he logged between 3.5-6.0 WAR in seven of 10 seasons between 1997-2006, most of which were spent with Pittsburgh.
Alas, he fell off a cliff as he aged later into his mid-30s, as many catchers do. The fact he only made three All-Star teams, and not one past age 26, also hurts his already mediocre case.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#18. Nomar Garciaparra
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF SS): 43.6 (54.7)
Garciaparra was on pace to be one of the greatest shortstops of all time through his 20s. In fact, he’s probably still the best Red Sox shortstop in franchise history despite being traded away from the team shortly after his 31st birthday.
Unfortunately, after the Sox shipped him off to Chicago mere months before they broke the Curse of the Bambino in 2004, Garciaparra’s body collapsed on him. After recording 41.1 WAR in nine years with Boston, he logged just 2.9 WAR in his final six seasons with the Cubs, Dodgers and A’s.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#17. Fred McGriff
Year on ballot: 7th
2015 vote percentage: 12.9 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF 1B): 44.1 (54.2)
This is when it starts to get tough for me. Had it not been for the 1994 strike that stole two months of the season, McGriff likely would have collected the seven homers necessary for him to enter the hallowed 500 home run club.
Of the 21 HOF-eligible players in that exclusive group, only those linked to performance-enhancing drug use have not been welcomed into Cooperstown. The lean “Crime Dog”, who captured a World Series ring with Atlanta in 1995, has never been publicly associated with PEDs.
Nevertheless, it seems McGriff’s chance to be enshrined has come and gone — he hasn’t been able to top the 23.9 percent of votes he received in 2012. While I’d love to recognize McGriff for his remarkable ability to adjust to different leagues and ballparks throughout his career — he’s one of only two players in MLB history to record 30-homer seasons for five different teams — with an affirmative vote, the ballot is too stacked for me to work on assumptions with McGriff and the 500 club.
If the voting process was a simple yes/no choice with no voting limitations, my choice would be different.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#16. Jeff Kent
Year on ballot: 3rd
2015 vote percentage: 14.0 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF 2B): 45.4 (56.9)
Kent is another tough case to crack. His three best statistical comparables, according to Baseball Reference, are Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Beltre and Carlos Beltran — three more guys who will spark fierce arguments when they’re eligible for voting.
Kent’s 377 home runs are the most by a second baseman by a wide margin, and his role in providing Barry Bonds with solid lineup production in San Francisco shouldn’t be ignored. MVP voters recognized this, handing Kent the award in 2000. Kent was also stellar in San Francisco’s 2002 World Series appearance, knocking three dingers in the classic seven-game set.
In short, I believe the premier power hitter at his position should be recognized with a bust in Cooperstown — notoriously cranky personality and subpar defense aside.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
Yes (1st)
#15. Gary Sheffield
Year on ballot: 2nd
2015 vote percentage: 11.7 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF RF): 49.1 (58.1)
Sheffield is the first player with confirmed PED usage who we’ve come across in this article. When dealing with such players, I always think — were his career numbers and accolades affected enough by PEDs to alter his HOF-worthy numbers?
When I look at Sheffield, I think they were. He barely qualified for the 500-homer club (509), and once MLB’s strict policy was instituted in 2006, his numbers rapidly declined. Additionally, Sheffield was always rated as a substandard fielder.
Like McGriff, Sheffield is an extremely close call who would get my (hypothetical) vote if we had a simple binary voting system. But we don’t, so he doesn’t.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#14. Sammy Sosa
Year on ballot: 4th
2015 vote percentage: 6.6 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF RF): 51.0 (58.1)
Sammy Sosa is the owner of perhaps the best Pinterest page to ever grace the site, but he’s essentially in the same boat as Sheffield.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#13. Mike Piazza
Year on ballot: 4th
2015 vote percentage: 69.9 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF C): 51.2 (43.1)
Perhaps the best offensive catcher in baseball history, Piazza finished in the top 10 for MVP voting in seven seasons — including his first five full seasons. A former Rookie of the Year and 12-time All-Star, he ranks fifth among all catchers in JAWS, above legends like Yogi Berra and Roy Campanella.
Piazza fell just 28 votes shy of enshrinement last year, and is a near lock to deservedly make the leap in 2016.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
Yes (2nd)
#12. Jim Edmonds
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF CF): 51.4 (57.2)
Edmonds has a surprisingly strong case for the Hall, even if you ignore his stunning exploits in the field. With a seven-year peak of 42.5 WAR, he ranks just below the average HOF center fielder mark of 44.0.
The longtime Angel and Cardinal also has an impressive postseason résumé, holding a slash line of .274/.361/.513. That helped him play a key role in many of his 64 playoff games, including St. Louis’ run to the 2006 World Series title.
However, center field has proven to be an exceedingly tough position to receive recognition for. Dozens of all-time greats have patrolled the outfield’s toughest assignment, including another first-time candidate in 2015 who runs laps around Edmonds.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
Not this year
#11. Mark McGwire
Year on ballot: 10th
2015 vote percentage: 10.0 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF 1B): 51.9 (54.2)
This is McGwire’s last year on the BBWAA ballot. Considering his paltry totals from year’s past, it’s doubtful he’ll get the call in 2016. His rejection would set an ominous precedent for fellow members of the Steroid Era coming up on that 10-year limit on the writers ballot.
That’s an unfortunate reality, but it’s a bit easier to stomach when you realize McGwire’s case wouldn’t be so cut and dry even if he mashed all those home runs while clean. His JAWS is below the average HOF first baseman, and worse than peers such as Todd Helton, Rafael Palmeiro and Albert Pujols.
Fun fact: McGwire’s closest comparable on Baseball Reference is fellow Bash Brother and steroid user Jose Canseco.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#10. Tim Raines
Year on ballot: 9th
2015 vote percentage: 55.0 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF LF): 55.6 (53.3)
If Raines does end up getting elected in the final two years of his eligibility on the BBWWA ballot, he’ll have to send some flowers to ESPN’s Jonah Keri. The former Montreal Expos fan has repeatedly vouched for Raines’ credentials in his columns since rising to prominence a few years ago, and it’s seemingly helped the cause.
Raines has seen his vote totals steadily increase from 22.6 percent in 2009 all the way up to 55.0 percent last year. And it’s been a deserved rise. The only left fielders ranked above Raines in JAWS that haven’t been enshrined are Barry Bonds and Pete Rose.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
Yes (3rd)
#9. Edgar Martinez
Year on ballot: 7th
2015 vote percentage: 27.0 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF 3B): 56.0 (55.0)
Martinez’s detractors will fault him for being a designated hitter and never contributing anything in the field. But even if you compare Martinez to third basemen, his default position at the dawn of his career, his statistics come out looking rosy.
Martinez ranks above the average HOF third baseman in JAWS, and was a force who could hit for both average (.312 career average) and power (309 career homers), while also possessing the plate patience of a leadoff man (.418 on-base percentage). The lifetime Mariner made seven All-Star teams, and finished in the top 15 of MVP votes four times.
If there are any designated hitters worthy of Cooperstown induction, it’s Martinez and David Ortiz.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
Yes (4th)
#8. Alan Trammell
Year on ballot: 15th
2015 vote percentage: 25.1 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF SS): 57.5 (54.7)
Trammell probably deserves to be a Hall of Famer. He possesses a higher JAWS than Derek Jeter, won the 1984 World Series MVP and thrice finished in the top 10 of regular season MVP voting. He was a perfectly capable fielder by most metrics, and racked up 236 stolen bases during his 20-year career, all of which was spent with the Tigers.
However, this is Trammell’s last year on the BBWWA ballot. And considering he’s never received half the votes required to be inducted, he’s not likely to get that call in 2016. Thus, with so many deserving candidates in the field this year, I wouldn’t “waste” one of my 10 hypothetical votes on a guy who’s destined to fall short.
Trammell’s exclusion on the PointAfter ballot showcases just how difficult of a choice baseball writers have to make in the current voting system.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#7. Larry Walker
Year on ballot: 6th
2015 vote percentage: 11.8 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF RF): 58.6 (58.1)
Walker’s probably not getting his due by the BBWAA. His closest statistical comparable is Miguel Cabrera, according to Baseball Reference. His stats are virtually equal to the average RF enshrined in Cooperstown.
But the stigma of playing in hitter-friendly Coors Field for most of his career will likely hinder him until he falls out of the field one of these years. And I can’t say I disagree with the voters who have left Walker off their ballots. The Rockies legend undoubtedly benefited from playing in Denver before the club started using a humidor to somewhat nullify hitters’ advantage, and it’s hard to quantify just how much Walker’s stats were inflated.
Walker did win the 1997 NL MVP, but that was one of just five seasons in which he was voted to the league’s All-Star team. I’d send a (hypothetical) vote Walker’s way if I had an unlimited amount of (hypothetical) votes to distribute, but in reality, he’s an easier cut than his JAWS might indicate.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
No
#6. Mike Mussina
Year on ballot: 3rd
2015 vote percentage: 24.6 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF SP): 63.8 (62.1)
There are 62 starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame. Mussina ranks 28th in JAWS among all starters in MLB history. Yet there are still many respected baseball minds out there who think Mussina doesn’t belong in Cooperstown, rebutting each of his noteworthy accomplishments with the fact that he hardly ever reached the pinnacle of success.
“The Moose” averaged 15.6 wins per season during his 17 full seasons, but logged just one 20-win campaign, in 2008 during his final year with the Yankees.
Mussina managed to finish in the top six of Cy Young Award voting during eight of his first 10 years in the bigs. That’s a remarkable feat, although Mussina never won the award and was “always a bridesmaid, never the bride.”
Heck, Mussina was even unlucky enough to play for the Yankees between 2001-2008, the exact eight years of their brief World Series drought after the turn of the millennium.
Frankly, I wouldn’t bet on Mussina’s chances of being inducted. His vote total must increase a little over three-fold in the next eight years for him to get the call to Cooperstown. It’s not impossible, but it seems as though the guy who just couldn’t catch a break throughout his MLB career will have the same unfortunate luck regarding the Hall of Fame.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
Yes (5th)
#5. Jeff Bagwell
Year on ballot: 6th
2015 vote percentage: 55.7 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF 1B): 63.9 (54.2)
Bagwell will join his former teammate Craig Biggio in the Hall of Fame one day. That much is for sure, with Bagwell possessing the sixth-highest JAWS among first basemen. That’s a higher mark than recent inductee Frank Thomas, as well as legends such as Willie McCovey, Eddie Murray and Hank Greenberg.
The question is: will the four HOFers who were enshrined last year leave enough votes on the table for Bagwell to make the 20 percent jump necessary to be inducted in 2016?
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
Yes (6th)
#4. Curt Schilling
Year on ballot: 4th
2015 vote percentage: 39.2 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF SP): 64.5 (62.1)
As much as I’d hate to grant someone with Schilling’s godawful world views any public speaking time, let alone during a Hall of Fame induction speech, his rock-solid statistics and postseason heroics with Arizona and Boston are too impressive to ignore. If the owner of the bloody sock doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame, who does?
It might take Schilling a few more years to get the call to the Hall, but he had his best showing last year in a crowded field. That bodes well for his future chances.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
Yes (7th)
#3. Ken Griffey
Year on ballot: 1st
2015 vote percentage: N/A
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF CF): 68.8 (57.2)
Griffey revitalized baseball in Seattle upon his promotion to the Mariners in 1989, bringing a smooth blend of power, speed and grace in the field that seemingly hadn’t been mixed together so effortlessly before.
Had his body not failed him during the second stage of his career in Cincinnati — Griffey only topped 140 games twice in nine seasons with the Reds — he would have been a fine bet to take over as MLB’s home run king. Instead, he currently sits in sixth place with 630 long balls.
The 1997 AL MVP, a 10-time Gold Glover and 13-time All-Star, he’s the closest thing we have to a lock to be enshrined in 2016.
So why is the player with the third-highest JAWS on this year’s ballot the surest bet to get elected? I’m glad you asked…
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
Yes (8th)
#2. Roger Clemens
Year on ballot: 4th
2015 vote percentage: 37.5 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF SP): 103.3 (62.1)
The final two candidates on the ballot are massively controversial due to their steroid use.
There’s really no debating whether Clemens has the numbers to be elected. He won a record seven Cy Young awards and has the third-highest JAWS among all starting pitchers to ever play the game. All his metrics rank near the top of the 62 starters enshrined in the Hall.
As I mentioned previously, the way I deal with players known to have taken PEDs is ask myself: Was this player on track for Cooperstown before he touched any performance-enhancing substance?
Clemens had five Cy Youngs and an MVP in his trophy case before he allegedly touched steroids. If he had retired the moment he touched a syringe, Clemens would probably be in Cooperstown. If I had the honor of wielding a Hall of Fame vote, I wouldn’t leave Clemens or any other PED users off my ballot on moral grounds. There are already plenty of game-fixers, racists and HGH users with busts in Cooperstown.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
Yes (9th)
#1. Barry Bonds
Year on ballot: 4th
2015 vote percentage: 36.8 percent
JAWS (avg. JAWS for HOF LF): 117.6 (53.3)
Even before Bonds was a big-headed (literally and figuratively) home run king, he racked up plenty enough accolades to enter Cooperstown.
Bonds had been voted Most Valuable Player three times by 1993 before adding four more MVP trophies in the Steroid Era. The cream and clear launched him from being an all-time great to the most unequivocally dominant hitter of his generation. It was akin to Godzilla stomping all over Japan after being soaked in nuclear waste.
It’s a shame that baseball’s record books will always be tainted because of PED use, but you can hardly fault players for seeking an advantage in a sport that hadn’t yet passed drug-testing legislation. Athletes are, by nature, some of the most competitive people on the planet. We shouldn’t punish them for taking advantage of a massive loophole that was left wide open by a willfully ignorant league office.
Would he get one of our 10 votes?
Yes (10th)
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