Projecting The 2015-16 NBA Standings Via Win Shares

Go straight to projected Eastern Conference standings

Outside of J.R. Smith, nearly every notable NBA free agent has found a new place to call home for the 2015-16 season. So with the majority of NBA contracts for the upcoming campaign signed, sealed and delivered, let’s try to predict how the standings will shake out.

This exercise will be guided by Win Shares, a statistic that aims to quantify how many wins each player contributes to his team in a given season. A team’s collective Win Shares doesn’t always exactly add up to its actual win total, but it’s usually quite close–since the 1962-63 season, the average margin of error is 2.74 wins.

In this case, what I’ve done is relatively simple: for every player who changed teams at some point during the 2014-15 season or during this offseason, I’ve transferred the amount of Win Shares each player earned last season to their current team.

Of course, a player’s 2014-15 Win Shares is somewhat reliant upon the quality of the teams he played for. And from season to season, the statistic can be affected by a number of factors: how a player fits into the offensive/defensive systems, any change in minutes per game, young players getting better and old players getting worse, etc.

But if you’re going to use one individual statistic to measure team wins, it’s clearly the best metric available. And it’s not as if other statistics aren’t influenced by a team’s favorable (or unfavorable) environment. Any given guard is almost certainly going to have better shooting, passing and defensive numbers on a team like San Antonio than he is with the 76ers.

A few housekeeping items before we get down to business:

To project how many Win Shares each first-round pick will produce next season, I calculated the mean amount that rookies from around their draft slot have accounted for over the last five years.

I also projected how superstars returning from injuries (Kevin Durant, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony) could affect the playoff race by extrapolating their win shares in the limited time they played last year to a “healthy” season.

Now, with the help of some PointAfter visualizations, let’s take a look at how the 2015-16 standings could shake out.

Go to projected Eastern Conference standings

Note: The original version of this article was published on SI.com.

Denver Nuggets

2014-15 record (win shares): 30-52 (32.3)

Key players gained: Joey Dorsey (1.9), Emmanuel Mudiay (1.4)

Key players lost: Ty Lawson (7.0), Arron Afflalo (1.8), Timofey Mozgov (1.8), Alonzo Gee (1.1)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 25.0 (25-57)

Note: Players who did not exceed 1.0 win shares in 2014-15 are not included in the “key players gained/lost” sections.

Go to Eastern Conference

Minnesota Timberwolves

2014-15 record (win shares): 16-66 (19.1)

Key players gained: Karl-Anthony Towns (2.8), Andre Miller (2.2), Damjan Rudez (1.3), full seasons of Ricky Rubio (+1.4) and Kevin Garnett (+1.6)

Key players lost: Thaddeus Young (1.4), Chase Budinger (1.3)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 25.7 (26-56)

Go to Eastern Conference

Los Angeles Lakers

2014-15 record (win shares): 21-61 (24.6)

Key players gained: Lou Williams (6.6), Brandon Bass (5.3), Roy Hibbert (4.2), D’Angelo Russell (1.7)

Key players lost: Ed Davis (6.3), Jeremy Lin (2.7), Carlos Boozer (2.2), Wesley Johnson (1.7), Wayne Ellington (1.2)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 29.9 (30-52)

Go to Eastern Conference

Sacramento Kings

2014-15 record (win shares): 29-53 (32.8)

Key players gained: Kosta Koufos (3.3), Marco Belinelli (2.9), Caron Butler (2.4), Caron Butler (2.4), Rajon Rondo (1.6), Willie Cauley-Stein (1.4)

Key players lost: Carl Landry (2.8), Jason Thompson (2.4), Derrick Williams (2.1), Ray McCallum (1.4), Reggie Evans (1.2), Ryan Hollins (1.0)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 34.8 (35-47)

Go to Eastern Conference

Portland Trail Blazers

2014-15 record (win shares): 51-31 (51.9)

Key players gained: Ed Davis (6.3), Mason Plumlee (4.8), Gerald Henderson (3.6)

Key players lost: LaMarcus Aldridge (8.6), Wesley Matthews (6.2), Nic Batum (5.2), Robin Lopez (5.1)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 38.6 (39-43)

Go to Eastern Conference

Utah Jazz

2014-15 record (win shares): 38-44 (44.3)

Key players gained: Trey Lyles (0.9)

Key players lost: Enes Kanter (2.7), Jeremy Evans (1.3)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 41.2 (41-41)

Go to Eastern Conference

Dallas Mavericks

2014-15 record (win shares): 50-32 (48.4)

Key players gained: Wesley Matthews (6.2), Deron Williams (3.6), Zaza Pachulia (4.2)

Key players lost: Tyson Chandler (10.3), Monta Ellis (3.6), Al-Farouq Aminu (3.3), Brandan Wright (2.9)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 41.2 (41-41)

Go to Eastern Conference

Phoenix Suns

2014-15 record (win shares): 39-43 (42.9)

Key players gained: Tyson Chandler (10.3), Jon Leuer (1.3)

Key players lost: Marcus Morris (4.0), Goran Dragic (4.0), Isaiah Thomas (4.0), Brandan Wright (3.0), Miles Plumlee (2.1), Gerald Green (1.9)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 36.9 (37-45)

Go to Eastern Conference

New Orleans Pelicans

2014-15 record (win shares): 45-37 (44.0)

Key players gained: Alonzo Gee (1.2)

Key players lost: Austin Rivers (0.7)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 45.7 (46-36)

Go to Eastern Conference

Memphis Grizzlies

2014-15 record (win shares): 55-27 (49.7)

Key players gained: Brandan Wright (6.1), Matt Barnes (4.3), full season of Jeff Green (+2.0)

Key players lost: Kosta Koufos (3.3), Jon Leuer (1.3), Tayshaun Prince (1.0)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 56.6 (57-25)

Go to Eastern Conference

Houston Rockets

2014-15 record (win shares): 56-26 (50.9)

Key players gained: Ty Lawson (7.0), Marcus Thornton (1.2), full season of Dwight Howard (+2.6)

Key players lost: Josh Smith (2.1), Joey Dorsey (1.9), Pablo Prigioni (1.1)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 56.7 (57-25)

Go to Eastern Conference

San Antonio Spurs

2014-15 record (win shares): 55-27 (57.8)

Key players gained: LaMarcus Aldridge (8.6), David West (4.3), Ray McCallum (1.4)

Key players lost: Cory Joseph (4.5), Tiago Splitter (4.0), Aron Baynes (3.9), Marco Belinelli (2.9)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 57.5 (58-24)

Go to Eastern Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder

2014-15 record (win shares): 45-37 (47.2)

Key players gained: Full seasons of Kevin Durant (+9.6), Enes Kanter (+2.7), D.J. Augustin (+2.5) and Kyle Singler (+1.6)

Key players lost: Reggie Jackson (2.9), Jeremy Lamb (1.6)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 60.0 (60-22)

Go to Eastern Conference

Los Angeles Clippers

2014-15 record (win shares): 56-26 (58.7)

Key players gained: Paul Pierce (5.5), Josh Smith (2.3), Wesley Johnson (1.7)

Key players lost: Matt Barnes (4.3), Spencer Hawes (1.2)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 61.9 (62-20)

Go to Eastern Conference

Golden State Warrriors

2014-15 record (win shares): 67-15 (66.8)

Key players gained: Kevon Looney (0.7)

Key players lost: David Lee (3.2), Justin Holiday (1.3)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 63.0 (63-19)

Philadelphia 76ers

2014-15 record (win shares): 18-64 (19.1)

Key players gained: Carl Landry (2.8), Jason Thompson (2.4), Jahlil Okafor (1.5)

Key players lost: Luc Mbah a Moute (1.1), Thomas Robinson (1.0)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 23.2 (23-59)

Note: Players who did not exceed 1.0 win shares in 2014-15 are not included in the “key players gained/lost” sections.

Go to Western Conference

New York Knicks

2014-15 record (win shares): 17-65 (17.5)

Key players gained: Robin Lopez (5.1), Arron Afflalo (2.6), Derrick Williams (2.1), Kyle O’Quinn (1.6), Kristaps Porzingis (1.4), full season of Carmelo Anthony (+2.9)

Key players lost: Shane Larkin (1.7), Jason Smith (1.2), Pablo Prigioni (1.2), Alexey Shved (1.2)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 28.0 (28-54)

Go to Western Conference

Brooklyn Nets

2014-15 record (win shares): 38-44 (33.6)

Key players gained: Steve Blake (2.1), Shane Larkin (1.7), Thomas Robinson (1.5), full season of Thaddeus Young (+1.4)

Key players lost: Mason Plumlee (4.8), Deron Williams (3.6), Alan Anderson (2.7), Kevin Garnett (1.6)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 29.7 (30-52)

Go to Western Conference

Orlando Magic

2014-15 record (win shares): 25-57 (27.2)

Key players gained: C.J. Watson (4.0), Mario Hezonja (1.4), Jason Smith (1.2)

Key players lost: Kyle O’Quinn (1.6)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 32.1 (32-50)

Go to Western Conference

Indiana Pacers

2014-15 record (win shares): 38-44 (42.4)

Key players gained: Monta Ellis (3.6), Chase Budinger (1.3), full season of Paul George (+9.0)

Key players lost: Luis Scola (4.4), David West (4.3), Roy Hibbert (4.2), C.J. Watson (4.0), Damjan Rudez (1.3)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 39.0 (39-43)

Go to Western Conference

Detroit Pistons

2014-15 record (win shares): 32-50 (38.9)

Key players gained: Marcus Morris (4.0), Ersan Ilyasova (4.0), Aron Baynes (3.9), Stanley Johnson (1.4), full season of Reggie Jackson (+2.9)

Key players lost: Greg Monroe (6.8), D.J. Augustin (2.5), Caron Butler (2.4), Jonas Jerebko (1.9), Kyle Singler (1.6)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 39.9 (40-42)

Go to Western Conference

Milwaukee Bucks

2014-15 record (win shares): 41-41 (43.9)

Key players gained: Greg Monroe (6.8), Greivis Vasquez (2.8), full seasons of Jabari Parker (+2.6) and Miles Plumlee (+2.1)

Key players lost: Brandon Knight (4.4), Zaza Pachulia (4.2), Jared Dudley (4.1), Ersan Ilyasova (4.0)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 40.0 (40-42)

Go to Western Conference

Miami Heat

2014-15 record (win shares): 37-45 (35.9)

Key players gained: Gerald Green (1.9), Justise Winslow (1.4), Amar’e Stoudemire (1.4), full season of Goran Dragic (+4.0)

Key players lost: Shawne Williams (2.0)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 40.9 (41-41)

Go to Western Conference

Charlotte Hornets

2014-15 record (win shares): 33-49 (34.1)

Key players gained: Nic Batum (5.2), Jeremy Lin (2.7), Jeremy Lamb (1.6), Frank Kaminsky (1.4)

Key players lost: Gerald Henderson (3.6)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 41.6 (42-40)

Go to Western Conference

Washington Wizards

2014-15 record (win shares): 46-36 (45.4)

Key players gained: Jared Dudley (4.1), Alan Anderson (2.7)

Key players lost: Paul Pierce (5.5), Kevin Seraphin (1.7), Andre Miller (1.6)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 44.3 (44-38)

Go to Western Conference

Boston Celtics

2014-15 record (win shares): 40-42 (41.0)

Key players gained: Amir Johnson (5.1), David Lee (3.2), full seasons of Isaiah Thomas (+4.0) and Jonas Jerebko (+1.9)

Key players lost: Brandon Bass (5.3), Jeff Green (2.0)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 47.4 (47-35)

Go to Western Conference

Atlanta Hawks

2014-15 record (win shares): 60-22 (54.8)

Key players gained: Tiago Splitter (4.0), Justin Holiday (1.3)

Key players lost: DeMarre Carroll (7.0), Pero Antic (1.5)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 50.8 (51-31)

Go to Western Conference

Chicago Bulls

2014-15 record (win shares): 50-32 (50.5)

Key players gained: Bobby Portis (0.7)

Key players lost: None

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 51.2 (51-31)

Go to Western Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers

2014-15 record (win shares): 53-29 (53.0)

Key players gained: Mo Williams (1.4), full seasons of Timofey Mozgov (+1.8) and LeBron James (+1.2)

Key players lost: J.R. Smith (3.8), Shawn Marion (1.7)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 51.4 (51-31)

Go to Western Conference

Toronto Raptors

2014-15 record (win shares): 49-33 (50.6)

Key players gained: DeMarre Carroll (7.0), Cory Joseph (4.5), Luis Scola (4.4)

Key players lost: Lou Williams (6.6), Amir Johnson (5.1), Greivis Vasquez (2.8)

Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 52.9 (53-29)

Go to Western Conference

---