How to Pick a Betting Winner in a tough Cinderella matchup with the most well known school in the Sunshine state vs the least known school in the Sunshine state.

The Florida Gulf Coast Eagles have already made tournament history becoming the first 15th seed to make it to the Sweet 16 and can they win this game or cover? Florida is the big 13-point favorite in this South Region game and the total is at 136. Expert handicappers like Mike Rosen who have only gotten two games wrong in March Madness according to a Yahoo! Finance report has the owner predicting the end of a slipper run but when it comes to picking the game against the spread you have to pounce early or right before tip off as lines shift.

In looking at the betting trends for these 2 teams on the season Florida Gulf Coast is 6-0 ATS and they have an O/U record of 4-2 and Florida is 18-14 ATS with an O/U record of 12-17.

One of the reason Florida is the big favorites is they have played a much tougher schedule. Florida Gulf Coast played in the Atlantic Sun Conference and they did not even win the conference this season. They only faced 1 ranked team in the season losing to Duke, but they did beat ACC champion Miami in the 2nd game of the season. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.

Florida has not been tested yet in the NCAA Tournament and they have covered the spread in both games. They have a more balanced team with a solid backcourt and their 2 leading rebounders are both over 6’9” while the 2 leading rebounders for the Eagles are 6’4” and 6’8” respectively. Florida is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games, but they are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Both teams shot over 55% from the floor in their last games and one key reason why the Gators are big favorites is that they have a very athletic backcourt and the Eagles get most of their scoring from their guards. Their starting 3 guards combined for 50 points in the last win over San Diego State, but they will be facing a tough and athletic Florida backcourt and that is key.

The rebounding and backcourt is the reason that Florida will win, but will they cover the spread? No they will not. Florida Gulf Coast is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games facing a team with a winning record They have covered the spread in their last 5 games overall and in their only regular season game where odds were posted they covered facing Duke on the road.

Florida Gulf has taken on the nickname of “Dunk City” in the NCAA Tournament and they have played like they have nothing to do since they do not. They will continue to play well and have fun and that is key facing a Florida team that has all the pressure on them.

Betting Pick: Florida will win, but Florida Gulf Coast will cover the spread.

Over/Under Pick: Both teams have a solid offense that has been on fire in the NCAA Tournament and that will continue, as the total in this game will go Over.

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