Did The Social Buzz Around New Fall TV Shows Translate Into Ratings? (New Research)

When the new fall television lineup was announced, we started to see some serious buzz in social media so we decided to track conversations around the 23 new primetime shows from ABC, NBC, CBS and FOX in the uberVU platform. We set up search streams for each show, making sure to isolate for mentions directly related to the televisions shows and those including their official Twitter handles, using queries like “betrayalabc”, “betrayal abc”, “betrayal pilot” or “betrayal tv.” It was easy to see which shows were generating the most interest in social, but could that interest successfully predict who would win premiere night?

Now that the shows have premiered*, we have compared the total number of viewers (using Live + Same Day Viewing statistics) for each new show to pre-premiere social metrics (total number of mentions, sentiment levels and conversation maps) to determine if social buzz had translated into ratings. We’ve highlighted the key findings below. For a closer look at the social data, download the full Fall TV Social Media Metrics Report.

Did social successfully predict which shows and network would win premiere night? Surprisingly, no.

3 Key Take Aways

• Mentions did not equal ratings.
  Shows with the highest and lowest amount of mentions before premiere night didn’t necessarily land in the same place in viewership—this was still the case after two weeks of being on the air.
• Negative sentiment was a stronger predictor of ratings than pure mentions.
  3 out of the 5 shows with the highest negative sentiment landed in the bottom 10 in viewers.
• Positive sentiment didn’t have a strong correlation to ratings.
  Of the 5 shows with the highest positivity only one (NBC’s Blacklist) landed in the top 5 in viewers. 3 out of the 5 shows with the highest positive sentiment landed in the bottom 10 in viewers.

Social Misses

The social buzz around these shows did not match premiere night numbers.

The Millers (CBS)

With one of the higher percentages of negative mentions and the fewest number of total mentions with only 184, it didn’t
look great for Will Arnett’s new sitcom.

Premiere Night: Placed 2nd with 13.09 million viewers.

The Michael J. Fox Show (NBC)

Michael J. Fox’s return to television was highly anticipated in social, garnering 3,112 mentions, with 27% positivity. The show also had a positive conversation map with “love” “excited” and “can’t wait” all appearing.

Premiere Night: 10th place with 6.78 million viewers

Super Fun Night (ABC)

People seemed excited about Rebel Wilson’s TV debut with 1,522 mentions and 53% positivity—the highest sentiment level of all new shows.

Premiere Night: Just shy of the top 5 with 7.44 million viewers

Brooklyn Nine-Nine (FOX)

Coming in 4th in total mentions with 2,259 plus a high sentiment score, the social buzz had this Andy Samberg comedy landing in top 5 in ratings.

Premiere Night: Bottom 5 with only 4.24 million viewers.

The Blacklist (NBC)

The Blacklist had a high percentage of positive mentions with 35%, but overall it only brought in 705 mentions.

Premiere Night: Easily landed in the top 5 with 11.70 million viewers.

Mom (CBS)

The new Anna Faris comedy only registered 263 mentions, with 15% negativity.

Premiere Night: 7th place with 7.28 million viewers.

Winning Network

Social Buzz: ABC

With two of ABC’s news shows—Super Fun Night and Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.—bringing in two of the largest figures in overall mentions and sentiment levels social picked ABC to win the network race.

However, when it came to premiere night ABC had an average of 6.265 million viewers per new show, placing it second to last.

Premiere Night: CBS

CBS had an average of 9.24 million viewers per new show and also had two of the five most-watched shows—Crazy Ones and The Millers—which each brought in over 13 million viewers, easily earning the top spot for the network.

Losing Network

Social Buzz: CBS

New shows from CBS didn’t appear to be driving enough social buzz to win premiere season, with none reaching over three digits in mentions. Plus, The Millers and Mom looked like they would land in the bottom five due to their high percentage of negative mentions (9% and 15% respectively).

Premiere Night: FOX

Premiere night wasn’t too kind to FOX as three of its new shows—Dads, Junior Masterchef and Brooklyn Nine-Nine landed in the bottom five. FOX did have one hit with Sleepy Hollow, which brought in 8.66 million viewers and landed it in the top five as predicted by social.

Author’s note:
The only new network show that has yet to premiere is NBC’s Dracula (air date: October 25). Over the last two weeks the show has brought in 9,790 mentions, with 26% registering as positive. Based on social’s past predictions, we think there is a chance of Dracula breaking into the top 5 in ratings, but the show won’t give NBC enough of a bump to become the winning network.

*Live + Same Day Viewing statistics includes people who watched the show during its premiere and also those who viewed it on DVRs on the same day it premiered.

Ratings source: http://tvseriesfinale.com