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In a significant blow to Hillary Clinton’s White House bid, a recent poll put her behind Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in Iowa, where the former secretary of State infamously came in third place during the 2008 primary caucus. According to data from RealClearPolitics, the poll pushed Sanders into a neck-and-neck position with Clinton a little more than two weeks before this cycle’s caucuses in the Hawkeye State.

It remains to be seen whether history repeats itself in Iowa this year, but the overall trend isn’t a welcome one in Clinton’s camp. As InsideGov has been tracking, Clinton’s sky-high numbers throughout the country have come down to earth while Sanders has mounted a slow-and-steady climb.

The Quinnipiac University poll, released earlier today, reveals a significant shakeup in Iowa. Sanders leads with 49 percent, whereas Clinton trails at 44 — a stark difference from a December Quinnipiac survey that had Clinton at 60 percent and Sanders at 30. That switch-up coincides with a continuing trend in New Hampshire, where Sanders has bested Clinton since early December. As of Jan. 12, he leads by about six points there.

Clinton entered the race with strong numbers and a leg up in the name recognition category. But Sanders has consistently beaten the drum on his chief campaign messages — income inequality and campaign finance reform — finding favor among voters frustrated with a shrinking middle class and not enthused with the Clinton brand.

Although Sanders is a longtime politician, and has been on Capitol Hill since the early 1990s, he is largely a new face to national audiences, providing him a twinge of the outsider credentials that have proven critical in this election’s conversation. It also shows that, even though Republicans have gobbled up headlines about their crop of anti-establishment candidates, the Democratic Party is not immune to the whole insider-versus-insurgent tension.

Look for things to get fiery between Clinton and Sanders come Sunday evening, when the Democrats meet in South Carolina for their fourth debate of the primary season. Incidentally, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley may not be onstage. NBC has stated that O’Malley, who has struggled to find his footing in the race, needs to be at 5 percent in national polls or in the three early primary states in order to qualify. InsideGov’s most recent tally has him at 3.8 percent nationally, and under that 5 percent threshold in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

O’Malley isn’t the only presidential hopeful whose lackluster polling has him in the danger zone for debate showings. Fox Business, which will host Republicans in a debate on Jan. 14, announced Monday that Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina did not qualify for the primetime showing. As a result, seven candidates will take the stage later this week: businessman Donald Trump, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

As the visualization shows, Iowa has become a tight, two-man race between Trump and Cruz, who are tied at 27 percent as of Jan. 12. Thursday night’s debate is the first of 2016 and the first since questions about Cruz’s citizenship status popped up, largely thanks to prodding from Trump. Cruz was born in Canada to an American mother, making him a natural-born U.S. citizen. For a time, he held dual citizenship but nixed his Canadian citizenship in 2014.

While Cruz and Trump have maintained their political bromance, they have started taking veiled shots at each other on the trail. Trump even added “Born in the U.S.A.” to his list of music played at his campaign rallies. Bottom line: These gents can’t keep this slow-burn thing going for forever. With Iowa on the line and plenty of people watching, Thursday might mark the beginning of a very public breakup.

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