Nate Silver just released his prediction about the 2016 Presidential Election. He personally believes the odds of a Trump presidency are 20 percent, and while I understand the statistical implication that a lot can happen between now and November, I am going to claim that Trump has zero chance of winning this election. No doubt, this is an interesting race to observe—even participate in for those who are civic-mindedly inclined. And I know that each election cycle is touted by pundits as “the most important election of our time,” but quite frankly, this time around, I agree with them.

Of course, there are strong opinions on both sides of the aisle—and there has even been some significant crossover based on who the presumptive candidates are. Regardless, I recently had a look at the cold, hard numbers—and they don’t lie.

The odds are stacked against Donald Trump. Simply put, it’s going to be next to impossible for him to win this election.

The Decline of the White Voter

It’s difficult to put exact probabilities on any election—especially from months out. What’s more is that pitting Trump vs. Clinton is sure to add a certain amount of volatility to the contest. Even so, it is possible to get an early read on Trump’s general election chances—and all that we need to do is consider how differently American elections look today compared to cycles of the past.

The demographics of the United States are continuing to become more diverse with minority groups growing at the greatest rates, either by way of naturalization, the maturing of ethnic populations, and/or higher birth rates. While white Caucasians are still the majority, these numbers are shrinking and attitudes and values are shifting as Generation Xers and Millennials become a driving force in American politics. What’s more is that white Caucasians cannot be depended on to vote in one primary block. All of this spells bad news for Trump. The majority of political analysts agree that Trump has a serious demographic problem—and the numbers back this up.


Possibility of a Historic Rout

Donald Trump is not a likeable candidate—and while he does appeal to some people, he doesn’t help his cause (or GOP candidates in statewide races either) when he is seemingly doing all in his power to alienate, marginalize, and anger key demographics. So while demographics continue to change and shape what the face of the American voter looks like, Trump’s “strategy” isn’t actually brining any of these people into the fold. If anything, he’s giving them more reasons to vote for Hillary. Just consider the following:

  • Trump has called Hispanics rapists and murderers—and suggested building a wall on the Mexican border (along with the demand that Mexico pay for said wall).
  • Trump has uttered the words, “Look at my African-American over here,” in relation to an attendee at a campaign event. The gentleman he singled out later told the press that he “is not a Trump supporter.” Additionally, he has retweeted fake statistics on black violence and also earned the support of notorious white supremacist, David Duke.
  • Trump has talked about his deportation plans, and has specifically targeted Muslim refugees stating that he would institute a ban on individuals who subscribe to this religion and prevent them from entering the country.
  • Trump has regularly attacked the physical appearances of women, including his former rival Carly Fiorina, has questioned Hillary Clinton’s ability to “satisfy” her husband, and engaged in a really aggressive (and pre-emptive in many people’s opinions) confrontation with Fox News commentator Megyn Kelly. Of course—there are other ways that he has worked to offend women over the years, calling them gold-diggers, bimbos, fat, ugly, and more…a simple Google search opens a digital Pandora’s Box of inappropriate and highly offensive comments about women.
  • Trump has not been kind or inclusive to Disabled Americans either. He made fun of a disabled New York Times reporter and has repeatedly refused to apologize for the taunt on the man’s appearance.
  • Trump has been accused of promoting anti-Semitic messages against Hillary Clinton. He tweeted an image of Hillary Clinton with what appeared to be the Jewish Star of David layered over $100 bills. Painting Jews as corrupt money-grubbers out to secretly control the government has been an anti-Semitic trope used since long before World War II.
  • Trump also apparently thinks that Asians only speak in short sentences comprising of broken English. He said, “’When these people walk into the room, they don’t say, ‘Oh hello, how’s the weather? It’s so beautiful outside, how are the Yankees doing? They’re wonderful, that’s great.’ They say, ‘we want deal!’”
  • Trump has also been particularly offensive with his comments against war veterans—specifically, prisoners of war. About John McCain, Trump said, “He’s not a war hero. He is a war hero because he was captured. I like people that weren’t captured, OK? I hate to tell you. He is a war hero because he was captured.” He has refused to apologize. Of course, his disrespect for the military doesn’t stop there—you can track some of his comments back to the 90’s—when he compared his sex life in the 1980s to a war experience on the Howard Stern show.
  • Trump has thrown hurtful and insulting comments at the Native American community. In attacking Elizabeth Warren, and calling her “Pocahontas,” he has ultimately “used the Native American community like whip—like an inanimate object, or a people dead and gone, not likely to respond.”
  • Trump doesn’t even hold back when it comes to his own party. He’s trashed George W. Bush and his brother Jeb, Mitt Romney, Dick Cheney, all of his primary competitors, and even Ronald Reagan (which I’m pretty sure is considered sacrilege in the GOP). He has called conservative pollsters, columnists, and other individuals who could help his candidacy “losers,” “dummies,” and “dopes.”

And just for kicks, feel free to check out this link. It’s a complete list of everyone, everything, and every place that Donald Trump has ever said something offensive about on Twitter, by far his favorite platform for throwing insults.

Trump’s strategy of focusing his entire campaign on angry (and categorically older) white voters simply won’t work—and the 2012 results prove it. Sure, Republicans already win whites by huge margins. Romney actually carried white voters by 20 points in 2012, but he still lost! The reason for this is because Obama won over minority voters by even bigger margins. Look at these numbers:

  • Obama carried 93 percent of African-American voters;
  • Obama carried 71 percent of Latino voters; and
  • Obama carried 73 percent of Asian voters.

Trump is seriously turning off these groups (alongside scores of white people) and the GOP could very likely be about to experience a historic defeat. Trump’s polarizing campaign has already sparked a huge increase in voter registration by Latinos. It’s projected that there will be about two million more Latinos who vote in 2016 when compared to 2012 numbers. Moreover, the largest surge in Latino registration is happening in key battleground states: Florida, Nevada, Colorado, and Texas.

Alienating the largest demographic

I’m talking about the ladies. And they are prepared to give Trump a clobbering. According to the Gallup Poll, 70 percent of women have an unfavorable opinion of Trump. In 2012, women made up 53 percent of the electorate, which makes them the single largest demographic a candidate must appeal to. While Romney carried men by eight points four years ago, Obama won the election because he carried women by 10 points.

Trump has been turning off women voters at pretty high levels based on crude and sexist messages that he has been delivering all too frequently. The latest polls indicate that Hillary could beat Trump among women by at least 40 points—this would quite honestly make American political history as even a gender gap of half that size would give Clinton an unprecedented landslide.

The one thing Hillary needs to focus on

This alienation is showing in the numbers. In a recent national poll conducted by ABC News/Washington Post, Hillary Clinton currently holds a double-digit lead over Donald Trump, which is a huge margin at this time in the election process.

The biggest thing Hillary needs to focus on is registering voters and getting them to show up. This has historically been a problem for Democrats – see the turnout table below.

Turnout Rate 2012
Non-Hispanic White 61.8%
Non-Hispanic Black 67.4%
Hispanic 43.1%
Other 45.4%

Trump though helps Hillary’s cause here. His remarks will likely push up the minority turnout rates to historic highs and if that happens, he has virtually zero chance of winning this election and Hillary Clinton will add the job description of “President of the United States” to her already impressive resume.