I thought I would just provide a bit of summary on my recent article, so people understand where I am coming from when I say that Facebook is toast.
1. It does not matter how many people are on Facebook.
From a revenue standpoint, every Facebook user is currently worth $5.00 to the bottom line. Contrast that with this: Every Subscriber to the NY Times, is currently worth $1.000.00 to their bottom line.
Why?
Relevance, that’s why. Pick up any newspaper in the country, and you won’t see ads for Wedding Dresses in the Sports section. You don’t see Ads for Pirelli Tires in the Food Section. If I am on Facebook, whatever dialog I am having is the subject, and there is no way for Facebook to place a relevant ad real-time alongside what I am doing.
Therefore, the ads are ANNOYING, rather than compelling 99% of the time. Once in a blue moon, an ad will be exactly what someone happens to be looking for, but that is accidental, not planned.
2. Unlike Facebook, Google knows what you want, and why you want it.
Google’s search algorithms are designed to put sellers in front of buyers. The ads you see, because they are keyword driven, pertain very closely to what you typed in the search bar. Don’t forget, Google not only knows what you just searched for, but also everything else you EVER searched for as well.
If I search on Gummy Bears, Google already knows where I am, and that I often add “Walmart” to my searches, so they will over time return both the direction to Walmart, and the current price of Gummy Bears in my SERPs. (search engine results pages). Facebook, even with Bing, simply cannot match this level of relevancy for people looking to shop. Ever. On Facebook, if I talk about Gummies long enough, I might get an ad placement from Haribo, but I do not buy my Gummies wholesale………..……yet.
3. Hype is ALWAYS temporary.
Like me, I am sure you have swallowed a massive dose of Social Media as Gold Mine for sellers. Duh. It aint so. It is a gold mine for communication, not sales. If you sell communication strategies (like my company) sure, you can make some money. If you sell Cupcakes (call me) good luck with that, because unless I wake up wanting a cup cake, you probably wont hear from me. Good Marketing opportunities are where you have an chance to can convert desire into action before the desire goes away, or the desire is rationalized into something else.
When I want something, I want it right now, and I don’t decide I want it, until I know about it, know what it costs, know if I can get away with it, etc. Search engines are great for that, because they can answer all those questions, and then guide me to the seller, where usually with a single click, it’s over, and FedEx knows about it too.
Facebook wants advertisers to think that the next time you wake up with Donuts on your mind, you are going to leap onto Facebook to discuss your desire, leading to a Dunkin Donuts ad appearing on your timeline, where you might get a coupon for discounted donuts.
Well, Big Whoop.
That does not help me RIGHT NOW. There is only a very slim chance that the ad from Facebook is going to result in a sales conversion within the space of desire. It happens, but less often than not, because we don’t shop that way. When I want a donut, unless I already know where to get one, my first act is a Google search on local donut shops where I happen to be. Bada-bing, bada-boom, Boston Crème, here I come.
When Facebook can do that for me, no matter where in the world I happen to be, then they might survive. This will only occur, when Facebook becomes the Social Media division of Microsoft. Otherwise, they are toast.