The prediction that ETH will flip BTC in market cap is common among crypto investors and traders. The highest ETH/BTC ratio was 0.12 in 2018.
Since that all time high in February that year, the ETH / BTC trading pair hit a low of 0.016 in September 2019 – a multi-year crypto bear market took place over 2018 to 2020 where many altcoins lost up to 99% of their value, so that retracement wasn’t unexpected.
However the second largest crypto by market cap has now been in almost three year uptrend against Bitcoin – outperforming most other altcoins and BTC for years. With the ETH 2.0 merge date set for August, many are asking again – will Ethereum flip Bitcoin?
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Will Ethereum Flip Bitcoin?
Earlier in 2022 one of the best crypto traders to follow, @Pentosh1, predicted that Ethereum will flip Bitcoin by the end of 2022 or early 2023. He sold over two million dollars of his Bitcoin holdings at the $64,000 top in April 2022.
Pentoshi now has over 550,000 followers. Those tweets of his relating to ‘The Flippening’ appear to have been lost but were discussed in articles on The Flippening.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
The 21 monthly EMA (exponential moving average) for the ETH to BTC ratio has now reached approximately 0.06. Shown on the ETH/BTC ratio chart above.
That will act as support and could be a new ‘floor’ for the ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin.
Pentoshi’s basic technical analysis in Q1 2022 was that ETH/BTC would find a base of support around 0.05 – 0.06 and in the long-run have an impulse move to the upside – reaching 0.12 and higher, for a retest of the previous ATH then a breakout into price discovery.
Focusing on the ETH BTC ratio rather than the ETH price can help to ignore short-term price volatility – such as the wider crypto markets reacting to the Terra (LUNA) crash, the S&P 500 dropping under 4,000, inflation and recession fears, etc.
None of those change the fundamentals of Ethereum and its use case.
The Flippening Prediction
If Pentoshi is correct Ethereum will flip Bitcoin in market capitalization, potentially:
- Bitcoin market cap now – $572 billion
- Ethereum market cap now – $242 billion
- ETH / BTC flippening ratio – 0.156
So assuming no significant change in the Bitcoin price – around $30,000 as of mid 2022 – that would mean Ethereum flips Bitcoin in market cap at a price of $4,680.
That’s not even a return to the current all time high Ethereum price – $4,860. A retest of close to that level, about 4% lower, is not an unrealistic prediction.
Will ETH flip Bitcoin? Bitmex derivatives exchange CEO Arthur Hayes also thinks so – he predicted the Ethereum price will hit $10,000 – again potentially by the end of 2022 or early into 2023. At that Ethereum price, it would.
The Bitcoin price and market cap could also drop lower – some speculate Bitcoin will hit $20,000 or even $14,000 – and if ETH holds more of its value relative to BTC, outperforming it after the ETH 2.0 merge, it could flip BTC at a lower price in future years.
ETH 2.0 Merge Date
A testnet merge is scheduled for June 8th.
Then an exact day and time for the final ETH merge date hasn’t been set yet by Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, only that it would be completed some time in August.
Some more short term Ethereum technical analysis is covered in the video above, with a look at the Ethereum price chart heading into June 2022 and the triple halvening of ETH. That event will reduce the ETH issuance and lower the Ethereum supply – which would be bullish for the ETH price and increase the probability of The Flippening.
The overall idea of The Flippening is that most of the emerging decentralized finance (DeFi) sector runs on the Ethereum blockchain. While Bitcoin is good store of value and inflation hedge – often compared to ‘digital Gold’ – Ethereum has more potential applications, utility and use cases than just being a cryptocurrency and decentralized means of exchange.
The DeFi market cap – covering Layer-2 DeFi coins that run on ETH – has been in a long-term bull market, opening 2020 at under $2 billion and as of mid 2022 being $55 billion.
Ethereum 2.0 Staking
Some choosing to invest in Ethereum also stake ETH to earn yield and ride out short term price volatility, anticipating that yield to also be worth more in the long-term if and when The Flippening happens, or anything close to it like a pump to 0.1 for ETH/BTC.
There are also various platforms to earn interest on Ethereum via crypto lending, a different method to crypto staking.
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