The head of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, is making the headlines this week once again with another bold Bitcoin price prediction.
During the widely awaited industry event called the Bitcoin 2024 Conference, Saylor said that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach a mind-blowing price of $13 million by 2045. This represents a 30% increase compared to the tech expert’s most recent forecast of $10 million for the cryptocurrency.
His prediction is based on several factors including a significant increase in the percentage of the world’s wealth that Bitcoin may attract. According to Saylor’s predictions, he expects that BTC will amass as much as 22% of all global wealth. Naturally, that’s extremely bold, but even if BTC goes from capturing 0.1% of that wealth – which is the current level – to attracting just 2% of the pie this would result in a bear case estimate of $3 million for the digital asset.
The “economic immortality” of BTC is an appealing characteristic that other assets lack as per Saylor. He emphasizes that the cryptocurrency does not degrade like physical assets and is also permanent and unchangeable by nature.
“Bitcoin is immortal, immutable, and immaterial, […] and it is the solution to our economic dilemma,” he said during his speech.
Guided by Saylor’s idealistic vision of BTC, MicroStrategy amassed a total of 226,331 BTC that are currently worth $15 billion. Thus far, these tokens have seen an 80% increase compared to their average purchase price. This huge investment has always been his strongest claim regarding the transparency of his motives when it comes to these bold claims as he has a lot of ‘skin in the game’.
Bernstein Analysts Also Have Bullish Views About Bitcoin
Apart from Michael Saylor, other analysts have also made optimistic forecasts about Bitcoin. One notable example is the brokerage firm Bernstein, which recently raised its price target for the cryptocurrency from $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Berstein’s analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra shared their bullish views in a note to clients, highlighting the importance of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the progressive embrace of BTC as a mainstream asset.
They claim that capital inflows going to these products could push the total assets under management of these funds to $190 billion soon.
Moreover, the halving event that took place on April this year reduced miners’ daily rewards to half, from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, and effectively shrunk the inflation rate of the asset. This is a positive catalyst as higher demand coming from Bitcoin spot ETFs versus lower supply coming out of miners results in higher scarcity, which translates into higher prices.
Meanwhile, looking beyond next year, these same Berstein analysts are forecasting that BTC could reach $500,000 by 2029 and $1 million nine years from now.
They cite that growing institutional interest will likely increase the capital inflows going to Bitcoin spot ETFs from companies like Blackrock, VanEck, Fidelity, and Bitwise. Thus far, retail investors are responsible for around 80% of the money that has gone to these products.
Hence, it is clear that there is a lot more room for BTC to grow once – or perhaps if – institutional investors start to progressively incorporate these products into their massive portfolios and start offering them to their wealthiest investors.
Some interesting examples of this trend include the State of Michigan Retirement System, which reportedly acquired 110,000 shares of the ARK 21 Shares Bitcoin ETF by the end of June – an investment valued at nearly $7 million based on today’s prices.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs and a Crypto-Supportive President Could Further Propel BTC
Several key developments have contributed to Bitcoin’s 2024 price surge and the optimistic outlook that these analysts have been sharing. The halving event that took place in April is among the most significant catalysts that managed to help BTC deliver gains of nearly 60% so far this year.
During this event, the miners’ block subsidy reward was cut in half from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This effectively reduced the new supply of Bitcoin from an average of 900 BTC per day to 450 per day.
This supply reduction is expected to have a substantial impact on Bitcoin’s price dynamics. As Bernstein’s analysts noted: “The ‘halving’ presents a unique circumstance, where natural bitcoin sell-pressure from miners declines by half (or even more, as they inventory more in anticipation), while new catalysts for bitcoin demand arise, leading to exponential price moves.”
The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January is also considered a game changer for the crypto industry as institutional involvement may increase significantly.
Moreover, traditional investors who stood on the sidelines for all of these years due to the largely unregulated stance of pure-play crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Binance may be lured to these products as they don’t have to deal with wallets or are less exposed to the risks involved in trusting their money to companies whose operations are not adequately supervised by regulatory agencies.
Finally, changes in the political landscape in the United States may play in favor of Bitcoin’s price as one candidate in particular – Donald Trump – is viewed by the industry as a supportive player for the sector’s developments.
Bernstein’s analysts argue that his crypto-friendly stance – which became evident by his decision to pick JD Vance as his VP – could result in more favorable regulations for the sector coming out of Congress if he secures his way to the Oval Office for a second term.
“We see significant headroom from institutional investors allocating to crypto and crypto stocks,” Chhugani and Sapra told their clients in regard to the world of possibilities that could open up if the market sees the next President as a crypto-supportive figure.
Crypto Stocks Deliver Gains in 2024 But Lag BTC as Regulatory Uncertainty Persists
Crypto stocks have been performing positively this year. The Invesco CoinShares Global Blockchain ETF (BCHN) has delivered gains of 7.7% since the year started and 2.2% gains in the past 30 days.
This ETF invests in a long list of blockchain companies including Bitfarms, Riot Platforms, Coinbase, and Marathon Digital. Most of these businesses are based in the United States while 17% of its holdings are allocated to companies based in Japan.
Investors have allocated $16.5 billion to this product alone but there are many others available in the market through which they can get exposure to the blockchain sector. A more crypto-friendly administration in the United States would probably help bolster these funds AUMs as investors could envision a brighter future for these companies if the regulatory framework for them becomes clearer.
A New Era for Bitcoin Has Started?
Saylor’s ambitious and somehow utopian new price prediction would mean that BTC’s market capitalization could be propelled to $273 trillion on a fully diluted basis just 20 years from now.
Two decades is a lot of time and who knows what can happen during that time. However, his claims are not entirely unfounded as the world has progressively embraced the digital asset to the point that it is now available for any investor – both retail and institutional – can pour money into it in a matter of seconds.
Hence, although his predictions may sound extreme, they reflect a growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential as both a store of value and a transformative financial technology.