Aptos (APT), the token that powers the new but highly promising Aptos layer-1 blockchain protocol, has been cooling off in the last few days. It briefly surpassed $20 per token on Monday and last week, but has since dropped back to underneath $17. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency remains on course to post a monthly gain of just shy of 390% in January, making it one of the best-performing of the major altcoins.

Indeed, Aptos’ stratospheric run higher in January has seen it vault into the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization according to current token supply – Aptos’ market cap according to this metric was last around $2.7 billion. However, almost unbelievably, Aptos’ fully diluted market cap (calculated by multiplying the current price by the total possible supply) is an eye-watering $17 billion, ranking it as the 8th largest cryptocurrency.

That puts it ahead of the likes of Solana, Avalance, Dogecoin, Polygon, Polkadot and a number of better-known, much better-developed blockchain protocols. Indeed, according to Pinehearst data, a decentralized application (dApp) ecosystem on Aptos is nearly nonexistent right now, with 94% of the blockchain’s transactions accounting for APT transfers, rather than smart-contract interactions.

As a result, many are screaming that Aptos has become massively overinflated relative to the rest of the crypto market. While that might be true, Aptos is young and its pricing right now seems to be more about future potential rather than existing fundamentals. Token Terminal data suggests that Aptos already has a sizeable developer force – expect new applications to launch in the coming year and bring some life to Aptos’ ecosystem.

Many expect that, given its backing from the likes of Andreessen Horowitz and Binance, and given that its development team consists of the team behind Facebook’s defunct Libra project, the blockchain could become a future powerhouse.

Crypto Traders Give Their APT Price Predictions

In his latest Aptos video, YouTuber, crypto trader and technical analyst HeuFin News outlined that he sees the cryptocurrency as in an upwards trend line. As long as APT remains in its current uptrend, it remains a “buy”, he noted in the video, telling viewers to keep an eye on various support levels between current levels and the $14 area.

By contrast, anonymous crypto trader @Whitekid_cryps said in a Twitter post that he expects one more leg up to the $24 area before APT then “nukes” back to around $10.

Given the high degree of skepticism that many crypto analysts and traders share about Aptos’ stratospheric rally in January, such a downturn shouldn’t be ruled out, even if APT would need to break its now fairly well-embedded uptrend to fall back to such levels.

Many seem to think that the rally in Aptos is a result of market manipulation by whales. Though Aptos claims that many of the tokens owned by early investors can’t be dumped on the market due to strict vesting schedules, the project has nonetheless faced significant criticism over its massive allocation towards insiders and early investors (many of whom are venture capital funds).

According to anonymous crypto-focused Twitter account @Cryptopital, 20 wallets hold 97% of Aptos’ circulating supply, which is “quite scary”.

Is It Too Late to Buy Aptos (APT)?

Asking whether it’s too late to buy an asset is never the right question. The answer is always never. The right question is whether an asset should be bought or not. And that depends on how an investor judges its long-term price performance outlook.

If you deem APT as likely to rise substantially in price in the current years, based on your own research, it is probably worth buying some. If not, then stay away.

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