Billionaire Tim Draper has doubled down on his Bitcoin price prediction of $250,000, which he made in a June 2021 CNBC interview. By the end of this year or early next year.
When he made that prediction in 2021, the BTC price was $40,000, having crashed from $65,000 in April that year. It did rally to hit its all time high of $69,000 in November 2021, but as of mid 2022 has dropped back under $30,000 again, erasing all of the 2021 bull market gains.
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Tim Draper’s Bitcoin Prediction
The respected venture capital investor’s logic is that only 1 in 6 Bitcoin holders are women – and that if more female investors are on-boarded, to about equal parity with men, that could mean a dramatic rise in the valuation of Bitcoin:
‘Women control about 80% of retail spending, and retailers haven’t yet realized that they can save 2%. They usually run on very thin margins so that might like double their profits. They can save 2% just by accepting Bitcoin instead of taking a bank-issued credit card.
That can change everything. All of a sudden, all the women will have Bitcoin wallets and they will be buying things with Bitcoin – and you’re going to see a Bitcoin price that’ll just blow right through my $250,000 estimate.’
Draper has been buying Bitcoin for almost a decade – he famously bought 30,000 BTC in a 2014 auction run by the US government, seized from Ross Ulbricht of Silk Road – confident in his belief that at a future date cryptocurrency would be the primary means of payment and exchange. At the time Bitcoin was worth just over $600 per coin – coins he claims to still be holding.
Speaking in 2021, Draper said told CNBC Make it:
‘Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2022 or early 2023. I think I’m going to be right on this one. Bitcoin is sort of like Microsoft in the software world or Amazon in the e-commerce world.
I think Bitcoin continues up because there are only 21 million of them. By virtue of its code, only 21 million bitcoin can be mined. Give it about a year and a half and retailers will all accept Bitcoin.’
Tim Draper is in fact tripling down – the Stanford and Harvard Business school graduate first made his $250k Bitcoin prediction in April 2018. Back then Bitcoin was around $8,000.
Draper also commented on decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs):
‘Generally technologies are first taken up by consumers, and then they move to the enterprise.
I think you’ll start seeing NFTs go from consumer to enterprise where now your diploma and your driver’s license and your employment history and your medical records and all that stuff will go on to an NFT. DeFi will go from the consumer speculating to the institution moving money around.
A DAO can solve social problems. You could have a DAO that benefits shareholders or the DAO owners, benefits customers who get the token for buying the product, benefits suppliers for supplying to that enterprise, and benefits employees for being a part of that enterprise.
So it benefits the community around which that enterprise operates, and you would lose all this politics of envy where people are mad at Jeff Bezos for making so much money.’
Tim Draper turns 64 next month in June. He was an early backer of AngelList, Baidu, Coinbase, DocuSign, Hotmail, Ring, Robinhood, SpaceX (Elon Musk has also made bullish Bitcoin price predictions), Tesla, Twitch, Twitter and Skype, with a net worth according to Forbes of $1.2 billion.
He didn’t get everything right in his career, also investing in Theranos – it remains to be seen if his Bitcoin price prediction will play out.
This month the price of Bitcoin price traded as low as $25,200 on some crypto exchanges. It may take a lot longer than the end of 2022 or early 2023 as he predicts, for Bitcoin to even reach $100,000.
However the current bear market, over rising inflation, recession fears and the recent crypto crash, could be compared to the 2020 covid crash – which today is just a tiny wick on the Bitcoin price chart above.
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Maybe I am the only one who feels that long-term, BTC is going to be considered an asset – or even an asset class as opposed to a new form of currency. (despite being labelled as a ‘coin’) I don’t see the average consumer being willing to deal with fractional amounts of BTC when making retail purchases online and especially not at brick and mortar retail outlets. Instead I expect other cryptocurrencies to step up and step into the retail space.
However, this does not necessarily mean that Draper is wrong with his price prediction for other reasons – for example if more Women do enter the digital asset space for investment reasons then he could be right about the gender influence on the demand for BTC. Also if/when the Fed does move ahead successfully with legislation that allows Wall Street to do more than dip its toe in the Digital Asset space, then all bets are off on how high the prices for BTC and other cryptos could go.