$1m Bitcoin price prediction

Many Bitcoin price predictions have emerged over the last few years, ranging from John Mcafee’s wildly optimistic forecast that Bitcoin would hit $1 million by the end of 2020, to Max Keiser’s estimate of $220,000 (though Keiser’s target has been adjusted multiple times).

Austrian economics shows that models used to predict future prices cannot capture all the different factors in society. Because of this, they can never fully and accurately show what should happen at a specific time in the future. Anthony Pompliano believes that trying to predict prices is a “fool’s game.”

Nevertheless, Plan B’s stock to flow model remains to be the most popular model for predicting the price of Bitcoin going forward, despite the fact that the model hasn’t been entirely accurate in the past.

Plan B’s model suggests a lot more upside

Plan B’s stock to flow model predicted that the average price after the last having would be around $100k. This is still technically possible if the Bitcoin price appreciates dramatically from here and is able to sustain itself above $100k for quite some time.

The model predicts that after the next halving, the Bitcoin price ought to average around $1m.

Even if this target also proves to be too bullish with time, there will be yet another halving before 2030 (in 2028), which could once more prove to be extremely bullish for the Bitcoin price.

Cathie Wood’s Bitcoin price prediction

Cathie Wood, of Ark Invest, has issued a series of predictions for where she sees the prices of Bitcoin and Ether by the year 2030, and they have captured the imaginations of many in the space.

She predicts that the price of Bitcoin will eclipse $1m by the year 2030, and has published her research to demonstrate why she believes this to be the case.

Amongst her reasons are the facts that governments will continue with quantitative easing measures since raising interest rates indefinitely isn’t going to garner popular support – people would rather inflation than a complete collapse of the stock market.

Moreover, Wood believes that Bitcoin’s adoption will continue to increase. The game theory of Bitcoin is such that all holders are incentivised to tell others about it, and that is why Bitcoin’s growth is exponential rather than linear.

Will fiat collapse?

A world in which the Bitcoin price very rapidly makes an ascent to $1m would be a world that has experienced an extreme degree of volatility and uncertainty.

If Bitcoin does dramatically increase in value to $1m, it could be for a variety of reasons. Many investors seem to hope that they will simply be 50x wealthier, but that the world will be largely the same.

A world with Bitcoin at $1m is a world that will look very different, since $21 trillion of monetary value would now be stored in Bitcoin.

There are already estimates that once the Bitcoin price reaches somewhere between $100k and $200k, over 50% of the world’s wealthiest billionaires will have been minted in the world of crypto, which has the potential to dramatically change the way in which society operates.

It could well be the case that Bitcoin increases in value to be worth $1m, but that the value of $1m is significantly less than than it is today – analysts such as Dan Tubb certainly believe that runaway inflation driven by quantitative easing is the most likely scenario, especially given the fact that it is the most politically-viable option.

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