Avalanche, the crypto project known for low cost and fast tractions, is showing bearish signs this week and may dip further, allowing investors to buy in ahead of another substantial move. AVAX remains relatively unchanged in the last 24 hours, but the token shed 17.5% in seven days to trade at $16.97 on Tuesday.
According to the short-term technical picture, Avalanche is dealing with several bearish formations, including a swing failure pattern. That said, investors and traders may want to prepare for a further retracement, with support at $12.5 and $10 in mind.
However, it is prudent to consider the possibility of an ascending trendline on the daily chart, dampening the bearish outlook around $16.5 and triggering an immediate resumption of the uptrend.
Why Avalanche Bulls Are Better off Waiting For Lower Prices?
Avalanche appears to have formed a double-top pattern on the daily chart as bulls aggressively pushed against stubborn seller congestion at $22.5. The first attempt at weakening this resistance occurred toward the end of January and culminated in declines to support highlighted by an ascending trendline at $14.
While February became extremely bearish for AVAX, bulls regained the reins in March, aided by support provided by the rising trendline.
As Avalanche price flipped above all the moving averages, including the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (line in red), the 100-day EMA (line in blue), and the 200-day EMA (line in purple), confidence built among investors, paving the way for another attack targeting the $22.5 resistance.
Due to the resistance at $22.5, a double-top pattern formed, which further complicated the situation for the bulls who had been eying a move to $30 before the end of April.
It is worth mentioning that the double-top pattern is a bearish technical indicator used by traders and analysts. It forms when the price of a token reaches a high level, declines, and then rallies back up to the same high level again.
This creates a pattern that looks like two peaks, with a valley in between, as illustrated on the chart.
A double-top pattern can signal a potential trend reversal implying that buyers are losing momentum, which could be interpreted as a cue to sell AVAX before the price falls. Traders can also use the pattern to buy the dip after Avalanche price exhausts the pullback.
Adding credence to the pessimistic outlook for Avalanche is a sell signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. Traders relying on this momentum indicator are likely to have started selling AVAX after the MACD line in blue crossed beneath the signal line in red.
Odds are bound to tip further against the bulls if the MACD carries on with the downward movement into the neutral area below the mean line. In addition, Avalanche price holds below all the moving averages—a situation that could exacerbate bearish advances.
All hell could break lose for AVAX bulls if the price slides and holds below the ascending trendline which would direct our attention to tentative support areas, starting with $15, $12.5, and $10, respectively.
Assessing AVAX’s Swing Failure Pattern
The bearish outlook for Avalanche has been spotted by numerous analysts and traders, with some saying it is reflected across altcoins. According to Bluntz, a trader with more than 222k followers on Twitter, AVAX, and other altcoins’ “moves up over the last month could have been B waves, with much deeper declines still to come.”
Bluntz believes “these (B waves) are feeling like warning signs” which suggests investors should brace for more dips before the market can start trending up again.
whole bunch of alts flashing weekly bearish SFPs, $avax is one and ill try to dig up some more but i think in regards to alts alot fo these moves up over the last month could have been B waves, with much deeper declines still to come.
these are feeling like warning signs to me. pic.twitter.com/mz24WctLdZ
— Bluntz (@Bluntz_Capital) April 20, 2023
Having said that, the key levels to watch for Avalanche price this week include the support provided by the ascending trendline at $16.5 and the next subsequent levels at $12.5 and $10. If the MACD position stays bearish below the mean line (0.00), declines will dominate this week and possibly the next.
On other hand, holding above the same trendline and pushing above all three moving averages – the 50-day EMA, the 100-day EMA, and the 200-day EMA may change the outlook positively for AVAX for another targeted attack on the $22.5 resistance. Avalanche price must emerge victorious above this level to confirm the coveted climb to $30.
Avalanche Price Wobbles But Cortina Upgrade Could Push AVAX Higher
The upcoming Cortina upgrade could save investors from last week’s dismay and trigger another bullish climb beyond $22.5. Avalanche successfully conducted a testnet release earlier this month, with the mainnet software upgrade expected on April 25.
Only 24 hours left until Cortina activates on the #Avalanche Mainnet: https://t.co/aKhhq1iBwj
Make sure to update your node to [email protected] before 11 AM ET on April 25th!
— Patrick O'Grady (@_patrickogrady) April 24, 2023
Analysts expect AVAX to be among the altcoins that recover from last week’s losses faster than the rest of the market. The Cortina upgrade is the most important for the Avalanche network to date.
It stands out for allowing exchanges to add support for Avalanche’s X-Chain, which the ecosystem utilizes when sending and receiving funds. The protocol’s network activity has also been on an upward roll, with active addresses reaching 602,000 at one point in the previous week, according to onchain data from IntoTheBlock.
It is this presence of many investors that could trigger a bullish move in Avalanche. For that reason, support at $16.5 is expected to hold firmly, allowing for increased demand and accumulation, in turn, creating the right conditions for a short-term rally.
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This article was written for Business 2 Community by John Isige.
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