Bitcoin’s retracement from $69k to $18k (where it currently stands) has shaken a lot of people who thought that the days of such high volatility were in the past, and some analysts believe that there will be a massive capitulation event in the coming months to shake out the last of the weak-handed holders.
Previous capitulation events – is a massive capitulation for Bitcoin likely?
Previous capitulation events have been bloody for holders and have tested them to the limit.
Previous Bitcoin cycles have had dramatic declines from peak to trough, although it is true to say that the volatility has declined somewhat.
Most investors and speculators are not emotionally prepared to withstand the high degrees of volatility that come with investing in an asset like Bitcoin.
In the same way that bull markets have blow-off tops in which there is often peak ebullience, bear markets are often shown to play host to the exact inverse phenomenon.
What do analysts think?
As always, there are analysts on both sides of the equation with contrasting views, but it does seem at the moment as though the majority are expecting further declines.
Bitcoin’s volatility to the upside has been significantly reduced since inception, and the asset no longer goes quite as parabolic as it once used to.
However, as this bear market has shown, the retracements from ATH remain the same.
Other analysts, such as Naeem Aslam, have speculated that the narrowing of Bitcoin’s daily range means that if there is a move to the downside, it could be a sharp and steep decline – as the spring coils, the eventual move is far more exaggerated.
The basis for the next bull cycle
The bottoming out of the market, by definition, precipitates a further move to the upside as Bitcoin looks to enter a new cycle.
Analyst Craig Erlam believes that the current post-crash prices could have a further downside thanks to the wider macroeconomic situation.
In the previous cycle, the “Covid Crash” in March of 2020 marked the bottom of the bear market, during which time Bitcoin fell to a price of around $3,000.
At that point, everyone who held Bitcoin with leverage was liquidated, so the dip didn’t last for very long.
What it did mean was that the crash created a bottom, from which the price was able to appreciate with strength (over 20x in a couple of years).
Bulls remain optimistic
Long-term Bitcoin bulls have remained optimistic, and this is reflected in on-chain accumulation. There has been some distribution from whale wallets to smaller holders over the past few years, and this is a trend that has been consistent since inception.
According to data from Glassnode, holders with fewer than 10 Bitcoin have been consistently adding to their holding stacks, and there has also been a significant rise in the amount of Bitcoin that is being stored away and held for the longer term.
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