Atlanta(-3) at Washington 1:00PM – The undefeated Atlanta Falcons travel to Maryland to take on the 2-2 Washington Redskins. The Falcons absolutely stole one last week against the Carolina Panthers. This is a bad spot for the Falcons, but Washington’s defense is so weak (ranked 29th) they can’t help but to score points. The Redskins evened their record last week with a win (24-22) on the road against Tampa. Atlanta is in a different class. With a more balanced attack on offense, and better defense the Falcons will remain undefeated.
Atlanta 30 Washington 23
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh(-3.5) 1:00PM – So the 3-1 team is getting 3.5 points against the 1-2 team. Normally after a big win over a division foe a letdown can occur. The Steelers are an intrastate rival, and the Eagles care. They will not mail it in. The Steelers expect Rashard Mendenhall, James Harrison, and Troy Polamalu to play. That’s certainly a plus for Pittsburgh, but they’ve missed a fair amount time so keep the expectations low. Go with the better team here – Philadelphia.
Philadelphia 27 Pittsburgh 17
Green Bay(-6.5) at Indianapolis 1:00PM – The Indianapolis Colts and the NFL were dealt a blow earlier this week as it was announced that first year HC Chuck Pagano has been diagnosed with leukemia. Assistant Bruce Arians will take over the HC duties. This will be hard for the Colts to overcome, especially this week. The Packers have been far from impressive this year, and were the recipient of the worst NFL call in ages. They just haven’t clicked this year. The Packers will be without the services of WR Greg Jennings for this one, but the Pack puts it all together for this one.
Green Bay 34 Indianapolis 23
Cleveland at Giants(-8) 1:00PM This is the type of the game were the Giants usually struggle and play down to the level of competition (see Week #2 against Tampa Bay). Cleveland is still looking for its first win of the year as we start October. The Browns were competitive in their last outing 10 days ago in Baltimore, and QB Brandon Weeden has improved weekly. The Browns just don’t have enough firepower. If the Giants play inspired ball, this one could be over quickly. WR Ramses Barden and WR Hakeem are out Sunday, and the Giants have many on the defensive side of the ball listed as questionable. Giants win, but it will be a struggle.
Giants 23 Cleveland 20
Miami at Cincinnati(-3) 1:00PM – It’s been Heartbreak Hotel for the Miami Dolphins the last two weeks. The Dolphins with two very tough loses in overtime to the Jets and Cardinals. Both games they could have and should have won. The Bengals are off back-to-back road victories against Washington and Jacksonville. You have to wonder if Miami has anything left in the tank. QB Andy Dalton continues to impress, and has not experienced a sophomore slump whatsoever. Miami is 6-1 ATS last 7 away. Cincinnati at home against a Miami team that could be flat here.
Cincinnati 31 Miami 13
Baltimore(-6.5) at Kansas City 1:00PM – Things have become so bad for the Kansas City Chiefs that there was talk of QB Brady Quinn replacing Matt Cassel. Cassel has not done much except for his year at New England when Tom Brady went down. The Baltimore defense has definitely showed some cracks this year, but whether the KC offense can take advantage is a big question. The Baltimore offense has really clicked this year averaging 30 points while amassing 424 ypg. Baltimore is just more trustworthy, while KC has lost by more than 14 in all three losses.
Baltimore 31 Kansas City 19
Seattle at Carolina(-3) 4:05PM – Seattle comes all the way back east to take on the Carolina Panthers. The Seahawks lost a grind it out game at St. Louis last week, and now are back on the road to face a Panthers team off an excruciating defeat. Despite the road warrior travel itinerary, Seattle has the better team and is getting a FG. They get a little break playing at 4:05. The Seattle D will prove to be too much for Carolina.
Seattle 24 Carolina 20
Chicago(-5.5) at Jacksonville 4:05PM – The Bears looked solid Monday night, and the Cowboys not so much. Jacksonville was handled easily last Sunday against the Bengals going down 27-10. It seems like an easy one for the Bears. A little bit too easy. QB Jay Cutler looked impressive against Dallas who does sport a respectable defense. Chicago is on a short week and traveling. This isn’t an optimum spot for the Bears, but Jags are so ordinary. Both teams have a bye next week.
Chicago 30 Jacksonville 16
Denver at New England(-6.5) 4:25PM – Memories. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady back on the same field as the Broncos square up against the Patriots. The Patriots were in big trouble in the middle of the 3rd at Buffalo last week. Then they just rolled up a quick 35 straight on their way to a 52-28 thumping of the Bills. The Broncos got back on track as they easily defeated the Raiders 37-6. Both these teams have had two personalities early on this year. Was it a huge turning point last week for the Patriots? Will Peyton Manning show his arm strength this week? Seems like a lot of points for a team that scores a lot going against a defense that gives up a lot. Denver with double revenge from last year steals one in Foxboro.
Denver 30 New England 27
Tennessee at Minnesota(-5.5) 4:25PM – The Minnesota Vikings are certainly a surprise team in this young season. Two weeks ago the Vikings defeated the 49ers and last week followed up with a win at Detroit. They are the toast of the town right now. That means trouble. At 1-3 this is an absolute must-win for the Titans. The Titans lost QB Jake Locker to a shoulder injury, but right now the better QB is Matt Hasselbeck and he’ll get the start. RB Chris Johnson showed signs of life last week erupting 141 yards on the ground. If he can get it going it will make it easier on Hasselbeck. Take the points here as Tennessee wins outright.
Tennessee 24 Minnesota 17
Buffalo at San Francisco(-9.5) 4:25PM – As you just read, Buffalo blew a nice lead over New England and basically pulled a big choke job. How do they recover from that disaster? The Bills can score, but they give up a ton of points. The 49ers are off a 34-0 blowout win against the Jets. They dominated the Jets in every facet of the game. They are now 15-6-1 ATS with Harbaugh at the realm. Another one that seems too easy, but how can you not like the 49ers.
San Francisco 34 Buffalo 16
San Diego at New Orleans(-3.5) 8:30PM – The Saints have to get it done sooner or later. A lot of hype surrounding this one as QB Drew Brees attempts to break the long standing record of 47 straight games with a TD pass held by Johnny Unitas. Sean Payton has been given permission to attend the potentially historic game. This all sounds warm and fuzzy, but the Saints defense is still really bad. San Diego will definitely get their points. Keep in mind that the Chargers have the Broncos up next, and these out of conference road games tend to be non-interest to many teams. New Orleans outscores the Chargers.
New Orleans 34 San Diego 24
Houston(-8) at NY Jets 8:35PM – Everybody and their sister loves Houston in this game. The Jets were invisible last week against the 49ers. Now they’re up against the best team in the NFL, with arguably a better defense than the 49ers. Oh yes, they’ve also lost their best offensive and defensive players. Why even show up Jets? They can’t possibly have a chance. This season will eventually go south for the Jets, but don’t be surprised if the Jets give a good showing. Losing 34-0 at home will do a lot for your motivation, and they certainly don’t want to get embarrassed two weeks in a row. The Jets keep it close.
Houston 26 NY Jets 24
Best Bets: Eagles (+3.5), Tennessee (+5.5), Seattle (+3)
Last Week ATS: 8-7
YTD ATS: 33-30
Last Week Best Bets ATS: 0-3
YTD Best Bests ATS: 6-6