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Is Vine Dead? A Look Inside the Instagram Video vs. Vine Debate

When Instagram first launched its latest update to include video sharing, many pundits were ready to call Vine, a video sharing app predating Instagram’s video app, as good as dead. Almost two weeks after the update, the news for Vine was not much better as links sharing Vine content decreased by over 60% since the launch of Instagram video.

Is Vine Dead? A Look Inside the Instagram Video vs. Vine Debate image Instagram vs Vine

Is Vine really dead? Using Crimson Hexagon’s ForSight platform, we wanted to take an in-depth look into the social media conversation surrounding the Instagram video vs. Vine debate.

Vine Brand Baseline Before Instagram Video Launch

To see how the introduction of Instagram video changed the social audience’s perception of Vine, we must examine the period immediately before Instagram video was announced to establish a brand baseline for Vine. Sourcing from our data library of more than 300 billion social media posts, we analyzed over 3.5 million posts about Vine in the month long period (May 19th to June 19th) before the launch of Instagram video to gauge existing consumer sentiments surrounding the Vine app.

Is Vine Dead? A Look Inside the Instagram Video vs. Vine Debate image Opinion analysis from 2013 05 19 to 2013 06 19

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Prior to the release of Instagram video, social conversation about Vine is largely positive (62%), with 36% of the conversation focusing on consumers excitement to engage with the Vine app and post on the social network.

I can’t wait to make vine’s with Brandi Lmao

Additionally, 23% of conversation is about Vine’s comedic nature as consumers continue to view and enjoy the funny content that proliferates the app.

If you want a free ab workout watch @TravisBeckum47 vine videos! Funniest things I’ve ever seen!

Interestingly, the largest driver of negative conversation is the lack of entertaining Vines (16%), which shows how different a user’s experience can be depending on who they follow and which of their friends are on Vine as well.

If you post 3+ vines of basically nothing in one sitting… You should have your account suspended #literallynoonecares

Finally, 11% of the conversation is around various service or feature issues which have hampered the user experience.

Now, we can take a look at how the conversation shifted once Instagram video was announced on June 20th. We looked at over 2.6 million relevant posts surrounding Vine following the release of Instagram video to track the drivers of consumer sentiment.

Social Conversation About Vine After Instagram Video Release

Is Vine Dead? A Look Inside the Instagram Video vs. Vine Debate image Daily Opinion analysis trend from 2013 06 20 to 2013 07 11

Users immediately took to social media to choose sides on the day of Instagram video’s launch. Vine actually generated more support with 42% expressing loyalty to Vine over Instagram, while only 34% sided with Instagram video. However, a few days after the update was live, we see a huge spike in the category labeled, “Lack of Vine content/entertaining Vines,” peaking at 40% of the conversation on June 25th and 26th. We attribute this to the many users who flocked to Instagram video in order to see what their platform had to offer. As we see from example tweets, Vine was like an empty wasteland in the few days after Instagram video launched.

Do people still use Vine? Ever since Instagram got video I haven’t seen any vines lately.

Do people still use Vine? Ever since Instagram got video I haven’t seen any vines lately.

— Obinna (@myboyobi) July 1, 2013

Yet throughout all of this, Vine users continued to express mostly positive sentiments, which reflects the loyalty of its user base.

Social Conversation About Instagram Video

With Vine fully examined, we can now compare consumer conversations to those surrounding Instagram video after its launch.

Is Vine Dead? A Look Inside the Instagram Video vs. Vine Debate image Opinion analysis from 2013 06 20 to 2013 07 11

Clearly, the majority of conversation around Instagram video is negative in nature, mostly focusing on a general dislike or annoyance with the update (26%). However, the most interesting negative conversation is the 15% of consumers who find Instagram video content to be boring or unentertaining. This is a stark contrast to Vine, where one of its greatest strengths is the comedic and funny content that users generate. Taking a look at example tweets, it is clear that users have yet to figure out how to create good Instagram videos and that photos that traditionally generate likes on Instagram such as food pictures or “selfies,” do not translate well to video.

Cringing at instagram video selfies. Unnecessary.

— ☹ (@babyheroin) June 21, 2013

Not only is the poor content aggravating users. The service issues that they are experiencing adds to the growing frustration users have with Instagram video.

Instagram videos take sooo long to load I don’t even watch them because I don’t have the patience

— Sarah Turner (@turnersarah16) June 30, 2013

But how much of this negative chatter is just a function of releasing a new product feature? Instagram will surely sort out the service issues in a new update and users need time to acclimate to the new video feature in order to post entertaining and innovative content. By comparing Instagram video’s launch with Vine’s launch on January 24th of this year, we can much more objectively compare the two launches in order to see if similar sentiments were felt towards Vine during its launch.

Comparing Social Conversation about Vine and Instagram Video at the Time of Release

Is Vine Dead? A Look Inside the Instagram Video vs. Vine Debate image Opinion analysis from 2013 01 24 to 2013 02 24

Analyzing almost 250,000 relevant posts during Vine’s first month of launch, starting in January 2013, we were able to uncover some interesting insights. First, from just a volume standpoint, Instagram Video commanded more attention in its initial month of launch with almost 350,000 relevant posts compared to Vine’s 250,000. However, Vine has also boomed in popularity as consumers have grown the conversation from 250,000 to 3.5 million posts in a matter of months. Much like Instagram, Vine initially had service issues and trouble with users creating good content as only 5% of the conversation focused around funny Vine content, which increased to almost 25% of the conversation a few months later. Thus, it does seem as though Instagram video has a chance to recover and regain positive consumer sentiment if they can fix the various service and feature issues customers are mentioning as well as showcase the most creative content users are curating in order to improve the entertainment quality of Instagram videos.

Yet, the most striking difference between Instagram Video’s launch and Vine’s launch is the percent of people who were excited to post on the app. While 35% of the conversation around Vine’s launch was related to excitement about posting on the network, only 8% of Instagram Video users expressed the same opinion.

The greater enthusiasm about Vine may be attributed to Vine’s advantage to being one of the first video sharing apps on the market. Users’ ability to create truly funny and viral content has also fueled its popularity to this point. Instagram, on the other hand, has not yet been able to galvanize its existing user base in the same way. Using ForSight, we were able to uncover the distinct consumer conversations surrounding Instagram Video’s launch, its impact on Vine, as well as retroactively compare it to Vine’s launch.

One thing is sure: Vine is not dead yet. Until Instagram Video becomes a place where comedic and innovative content is abound, users will continue to look to Vine to provide that engaging content.

Is Vine Dead? A Look Inside the Instagram Video vs. Vine Debate image c1681ce2 b0ad 4dcb a3a6 8e9cd70fdfb5

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