I thought I would just provide a bit of summary on my recent article, so people understand where I am coming from when I say that Facebook is toast.
1. It does not matter how many people are on Facebook.
From a revenue standpoint, every Facebook user is currently worth $5.00 to the bottom line. Contrast that with this: Every Subscriber to the NY Times, is currently worth $1.000.00 to their bottom line.
Why?
Relevance, that’s why. Pick up any newspaper in the country, and you won’t see ads for Wedding Dresses in the Sports section. You don’t see Ads for Pirelli Tires in the Food Section. If I am on Facebook, whatever dialog I am having is the subject, and there is no way for Facebook to place a relevant ad real-time alongside what I am doing.
Therefore, the ads are ANNOYING, rather than compelling 99% of the time. Once in a blue moon, an ad will be exactly what someone happens to be looking for, but that is accidental, not planned.
2. Unlike Facebook, Google knows what you want, and why you want it.
Google’s search algorithms are designed to put sellers in front of buyers. The ads you see, because they are keyword driven, pertain very closely to what you typed in the search bar. Don’t forget, Google not only knows what you just searched for, but also everything else you EVER searched for as well.
If I search on Gummy Bears, Google already knows where I am, and that I often add “Walmart” to my searches, so they will over time return both the direction to Walmart, and the current price of Gummy Bears in my SERPs. (search engine results pages). Facebook, even with Bing, simply cannot match this level of relevancy for people looking to shop. Ever. On Facebook, if I talk about Gummies long enough, I might get an ad placement from Haribo, but I do not buy my Gummies wholesale………..……yet.
3. Hype is ALWAYS temporary.
Like me, I am sure you have swallowed a massive dose of Social Media as Gold Mine for sellers. Duh. It aint so. It is a gold mine for communication, not sales. If you sell communication strategies (like my company) sure, you can make some money. If you sell Cupcakes (call me) good luck with that, because unless I wake up wanting a cup cake, you probably wont hear from me. Good Marketing opportunities are where you have an chance to can convert desire into action before the desire goes away, or the desire is rationalized into something else.
When I want something, I want it right now, and I don’t decide I want it, until I know about it, know what it costs, know if I can get away with it, etc. Search engines are great for that, because they can answer all those questions, and then guide me to the seller, where usually with a single click, it’s over, and FedEx knows about it too.
Facebook wants advertisers to think that the next time you wake up with Donuts on your mind, you are going to leap onto Facebook to discuss your desire, leading to a Dunkin Donuts ad appearing on your timeline, where you might get a coupon for discounted donuts.
Well, Big Whoop.
That does not help me RIGHT NOW. There is only a very slim chance that the ad from Facebook is going to result in a sales conversion within the space of desire. It happens, but less often than not, because we don’t shop that way. When I want a donut, unless I already know where to get one, my first act is a Google search on local donut shops where I happen to be. Bada-bing, bada-boom, Boston Crème, here I come.
When Facebook can do that for me, no matter where in the world I happen to be, then they might survive. This will only occur, when Facebook becomes the Social Media division of Microsoft. Otherwise, they are toast.
Not much to add to that really. Badaboom, badabing.
Makes me laugh all the articles coming out now about how the Facebook IPO was not fair to the little guy, as the Wall St. “fat cats”, and Facebook itself, withheld important financial information from from said “little guy”, making the stock appear more valuable than it should have to them.
Funny – I saw a lot of small-time investors warning about an exaggerated P/E ratio, and noting that profits were down for the company in the last fiscal year. Yeah – PRIOR to the IPO going live on the NASDAQ.
It’s just that that “little guy” didn’t want to hear that, so in typical dumba$$ fashion, is crying, “Butthurt! Butthurt! Foul!”
This is what happens when you make decisions based on EMOTION, rather than LOGIC.
Facebook will be gone by 2014. Totally. It is the ENRON of this decade. Zuckerberg will be in jail, I can put money on that and win that bet! CNBC will have to make an American Greed episode apologizing about having egg on their faces. How dumb will the idiots who made the Social Network movie feel?
Why do I know this? ENRON was only worth $70 billion. And they made oil and gas. All of Hollywood is only $22 billion combined, yet they control ALL media?
How is Facebook worth more than a tangible company? It’s not, and that’s that. Anybody who is pro-Facebook is also an imbecile. See the root word of imbecile’s origin, and you’ll understand why I just called them that.
Facebook may not work as a way to sell donuts (something you want and can get within a half hour) but it does work for things like travel plans, larger purchases, entertainment and events. I agree that some of the hype around Facebook is way overblown and that the ultimate social network may ultimately fail but I doubt it will be as early as 2014. Even good TV shows that stay too long at the party usually go another two or three seasons before someone mercifully pulls the plug.
The reason why I’m interested in this article is because I need a place to position the internet Christian ministry I plan on launching, and I don’t have knowledge or money to create a web page. So I’m open to facts about Facebook, good, bad or indifferent.
facebook is dead because it, like all trendy things, die eventually. The girl that made me get a facebook account in the first place has closed hers end of story.
Facebook is dead. why?
First reason -> the only purchases that *anyone* I know has made via facebook were classifieds-type direct sales – ie. ‘i have a printer i no longer need, anyone want it?’ They have not been through advertising.
The second reason -> paid ‘promotion’ of posts. This is either a desperate money-grab, or the people running facebook are unaware of what killed many pre-google search engines.
The third is the constant erosion of privacy settings, users *will* eventually ‘snap’.
Fourth -> no way to avoid the flawed ‘ranking’ algorithm. Things which people couldn’t give a stuff about still appear, but important stuff is now sometimes invisible.
Fifth -> facebook is fast becoming the ‘New Myspace’